Trump now bleeding support in GOP-dominated state as more women voters gravitate to Biden

19 July 2024

Former President Donald Trump's political hopes may be in danger in a solidly Republican state with a significant haul of Electoral College votes if current polling trends stay consistent.

Newsweek recently reported that in Florida, the election may start to shift in President Joe Biden's favor, who now enjoys a plurality of women voters' support in the Sunshine State. A FOX 13/Insider Advantage poll of 800 Floridians between July 15 and July 16 found that 47% of female respondents preferred Biden, while 44% preferred Trump.

Trump's lead in Florida with male voters, however, remains significant: He leads Biden by a 57-38 margin among men. Still, on women on average have outpaced men in voter turnout among almost every racial demographic, meaning women could narrowly decide who wins Florida's 30 electoral votes in November.

The poll of Florida voters also found that Biden is the strongest candidate to face Trump in November. While some Democrats are pushing him to pull out of the race, the likeliest option to replace him at the top of the ticket is Vice President Kamala Harris.

That poll found that Trump's slight lead over Biden with Florida voters grows to double digits if Harris is instead the nominee. Trump also regains the lead with women voters if Harris is on the ballot instead of Biden.

Despite Florida having a Republican-dominated legislature, and electing far-right Republican Governor Ron DeSantis to two terms, the Sunshine State remains competitive in federal elections. In 2020, Biden won Florida's female voters over, with 51% to Trump's 48%. Trump won with male voters by a 54-45 margin, and carried the state with a three-point advantage.

However, 2024 may be an even tighter race in Florida given that voters will have the opportunity to cast a ballot on abortion rights. So far, abortion rights have succeeded in every state ballot question since the Supreme Court overturned the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision in 2022. Abortion was even a winning issue in ruby-red states like Kansas, Kentucky and Montana in the 2022 midterms, and won another major victory in Ohio last year.

Should Floridians turn out in large numbers for the abortion ballot initiative, it's likely that women will lead the charge given they'll be able to have a direct say in their own reproductive rights. This could influence not only the presidential race, but also a very competitive U.S. Senate race. Rep. Debbie Murcasel-Powell (D-Florida) is within striking distance of Sen. Rick Scott (R-Florida) in the latest polls from June, trailing him by just two points last month.

The GOP likely knows its weak spot with women voters when it comes to abortion rights, as no speakers at the recent Republican National Convention once mentioned abortion during the four-day event. A Pew Research survey from May additionally found that nearly two-thirds of both men and women believe the procedure should be legal in most cases.

Click here to read Newsweek's full report.

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