'Truly different': Here’s the surprising voting bloc that could decide the 2024 election

17 October 2024

Control of the House of Representatives, the U.S. Senate and the White House could all come down to one pocket of voters in the battleground state of Arizona next month.

New York Magazine's Ben Jacobs recently reported that both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are courting suburban voters in Maricopa County — which houses Phoenix, making it the most populous county in the Grand Canyon State. How that county votes could ultimately come down to Republican supporters of the late senator John McCain (R-Arizona), who was also the 2008 Republican presidential nominee.

McCain represented Arizona in the U.S. Senate from 1987 up until his death in 2018. The late senator had an icy relationship with Trump dating back to 2015, when Trump said he didn't respect McCain because he was a prisoner of war (Trump said of McCain: "I like people who weren't captured"). McCain also notably cast the deciding vote to kill the GOP's attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act in 2017, when they controlled the White House and both chambers of Congress.

According to Jacobs, Arizona's swing from red to blue between 2016 and 2020 was largely due to President Joe Biden managing to make gains in Maricopa's more affluent suburban communities, like Scottsdale. And McCain Republicans' disdain for Trump proved to be what put Arizona's 11 Electoral College votes in the Democratic column for the first time since 1996. with a slim margin of less than 11,000 votes statewide.

"What makes this stretch of suburban Phoenix truly different from similar parts of the country is that this is only part of the country where large chunks of the traditional Republican voters have defected en masse," Jacobs wrote. "Scorned by Kari Lake during her 2022 gubernatorial run (she told McCain Republicans by name to 'get the hell out' during one rally), they may have delivered the margin of defeat in her narrow loss that year and may do so again in her Senate race against Democratic congressman Ruben Gallego in November."

While the presidential contest is effectively tied between Harris and Trump, the Senate race is less close: FiveThirtyEight's polling data shows Gallego ahead of Lake by anywhere from four to 13 percentage points. In fact, Lake hasn't led Gallego in any poll since July. She continues to deny losing her 2022 gubernatorial election to Democrat Katie Hobbs, just as she continues to maintain that Biden was not the true winner of the 2020 election.

And in addition to Lake, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Arizona) is also in danger of losing his reelection in Arizona's 1st Congressional District despite being a seven-term incumbent. Schweikert — who was first elected in the 2010 midterms — is facing a challenge from Democratic state lawmaker Amish Shah, who currently holds a razor-thin polling lead. Shah is banking on support from McCain Republicans to carry him across the finish line in less than three weeks.

"John McCain brought a spirit of independence here, and our senator, Kyrsten Sinema, had somewhat of a similar message,” Shah told Jacobs. “Arizonans are independent-minded; that sentiment is very much there when you’re speaking to the voters.”

“I’ve met many, many, many Republicans who said ‘My party has left me, I don’t like the turn that my own party has made, and I’m looking for a Democrat like you," he continued.

Currently, Republicans have a slim lead in the House of Representatives, with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) only able to have two defections from his conference in order to pass legislation through the chamber. Districts like Schweikert's could be what tips the scales in Democrats' favor this November. And McCain Republicans disgusted with Trump, Lake and the MAGA movement may be the deciding factor.

Click here to read Jacobs' report in its entirety (subscription required).

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