Why a 'viral hemorrhagic pandemic' could be on the way: report

16 April 2023

The Marburg virus — a lethal pathogen similar to Ebola — is spreading rapidly in both Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania, and could soon expand beyond Africa, The Daily Beast reports.

Marburg, which is described as a "hemorrhagic fever," according to The New York Times, is capable of killing up to "90 percent of the people it infects," and although a "rare" condition, the "steady uptick in occurrences in Africa in recent years is raising alarm."

Per The Beast, "the main problem is that Marburg outbreaks are generally small, short-lived and highly lethal," which Brian Garibaldi, director of the Maryland-based Johns Hopkins Biocontainment Unit, told The Beast means, "a lot of times, these outbreaks end before we can get vaccines on the ground to test efficacy."

He emphasized, "We don't have data from human trials."

The Beast reports:

Marburg is unique. Vaccines are available or far along in development for all the other viruses. But not for Marburg, whose outbreaks begin so abruptly, kill so thoroughly and end so quickly that there’s never been time to conduct large-scale human trials of a vaccine candidate.

This is why professor of global health and epidemiology at George Mason University in Virginia, Amira Roess told The Beast, "It's just a matter of time before we see a viral hemorrhagic pandemic."

The New York Times reports:

One of the two outbreaks, in Tanzania in East Africa, seems to have been brought under control, with just two people left in quarantine. But in the other, in Equatorial Guinea on the west coast, spread of the virus is ongoing, and the World Health Organization said last week that the country was not being transparent in reporting cases.

Regarding the lack of transparency, Roess said, "The situation in Equatorial Guinea is unclear in part due to a lack of surveillance, fear of reporting and other political and economic pressures. This has a lot of us worried because without timely surveillance data and information this outbreak can spread and cause significant disruption and death."

Garibaldi noted, "It does not appear the two outbreaks are linked," but it's what The Beast reports is "just pathogenic bad luck."

The Beast reports:

Marburg is already a real threat in huge swaths of Africa. The problem, for the rest of humanity in general, is that Marburg outbreaks are outpacing efforts to prevent those outbreaks. The current overlapping outbreaks are a warning sign: that Marburg is going to spread more widely, more often, and infect more people—and not only in Africa.

"It is important to systematically assess patients for the possibility of viral hemorrhagic fevers… through a triage and evaluation process, including a detailed travel history," the CDC advised on Thursday, according to The Beast.

The Daily Beast's full report is available at this link (subscription required). The New York Times' report is here (subscription required).

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