'Longest stretch in 50 years': Unemployment historically low despite experts’ predictions

The Biden White House just released its economic year-in-review for 2023, and it's celebrating a robust economic performance even as polls show Americans are still anxious about the US economy.

National Economic Council director Lael Brainerd issued a statement celebrating the administration's economic agenda three years after the Covid-19 pandemic shut down the global economy, laid off millions of workers and dealt a significant blow to supply chains around the world. She emphasized that despite economic forecasters predicting a contraction in employment in order to combat inflation at this time last year, the White House has overseen both a significant decline in inflation while keeping the unemployment rate at historic lows.

"Over the last year, economic growth has been strong, while inflation has declined by two thirds, and unemployment has remained below 4% for the longest stretch in 50 years. Supply chains have been rebuilt, and productivity is up," Brainerd stated. "American workers are finishing the year in a stronger position than before the pandemic—with wages and wealth up by more than inflation and strong employment thanks in part to the President’s Bidenomics agenda."

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"But many Americans continue to face challenges, and there is more work to do to lower costs for American families, which is the President’s top economic priority," she added.

Indeed, many Americans are still less than enthusiastic about the economy in spite of the data. A CBS News/YouGov poll released this week showed that a majority of Americans between the ages of 30 and 64 say their standard of living is worse today than during their parents' generation. 39% of Americans between 18 and 29 said the same, along with 40% of Americans aged 65 and up. And when asked about when they thought the worst time in history was for the US economy, a plurality of respondents (39%) pointed to the Covid-19 shutdowns, while 22% of those polled said the most difficult time was right now.

The disparity between the sentiment Americans express in polls and actual economic data is particularly wide. A report published this week by housing site Redfin found that median rents in the US saw their biggest year-over-year decline in three years, with a 2.1% decrease in asking rent between November of last year and November of 2023. Also this week, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi recently tweeted that even though the average American household has to spend $1,031 more on monthly expenses today than it did three years ago, the average median household income has also seen an increase of $1,087, meaning wage growth is outpacing price growth. When breaking down economic conditions by generation, Gen Z (people born between 1995 and 2012) saw the biggest increase in after-tax wage and salary growth according to a Bank of America study. That same study showed Gen Z's bank accounts have seen an average balance increase of 100% (other age brackets saw roughly a 50% increase).

Other economic metrics are similarly strong. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 37,000 — a new all-time high. Axios reported earlier this year that American job satisfaction is at its highest mark since the late 1980s, with workers citing a more favorable work-life balance and an abundance of new jobs allowing Americans to leave less satisfactory jobs for work they find more satisfying. And as Christmas approaches, prices on many holiday-related consumer goods — like toys, home decorations, technology and airline tickets — are flat or falling. As of December 2023, gas prices have hit their lowest point of the year. And grocery prices saw their smallest increase in more than 2.5 years, according to food economist David Ortega of Michigan State University.

READ MORE: 'Not just wrong but dangerous': How social media is warping Americans' view of the economy

The disparity between economic data and polls may in fact be attributed to what TikTok creator Kyla Scanlon refers to as a "vibecession," in which how workers feel about the economy tends to carry more weight than actual economic performance. Because younger workers tend to be the most pessimistic about the economy in polls, and because younger Americans tend to get their news from social media apps like TikTok, Scanlon attributes the "vibecession" to creators over-emphasizing economic outliers like high fast food prices to convey the false message that the overall economy is bad, as that generates the engagement that feeds those apps' respective algorithms.

"I think things just feel harder," University of Michigan professor Betsey Stevenson told the New York Times.