U.S. President Donald Trump disembarks the new Air Force One, a plane gifted by the Qatari government, as he arrives at Bismarck Municipal Airport in Bismarck, North Dakota, U.S., July 1, 2026. REUTERS/Evan Vucci
A long-time political strategist is detailing two main issues that are connecting most with voters as candidates are now less than 100 days away from the 2026 midterm elections.
Speaking to The New Republic's Greg Sargent for the Monday podcast, Democratic strategist Andrew Bates explained that one consistency is how different the economy is in 2026 compared with 2024.
During the 2024 election, Trump was promising lower inflation, lower grocery prices and lower gas prices. He claimed that increasing tariffs would help pay down the national debt because other countries would be paying the tariffs. Americans now understand that none of that was true.
"Trump was promising that immediately, quote-unquote, he would lower costs, and tariffs were a critical way he said he would do this. Then people lived through them," said Bates. "And now, like you were talking about, because prices went up across the board, they’re extremely unpopular, and more tariffs are the opposite of what voters want, including a lot of Republican voters."
"So it’s something that Democrats, wherever they fall within the ideological spectrum of the party, have been unified in calling out as something that is going to hurt everyday people. It’s also powerful that the tariff revenue goes to fund the tax breaks for billionaires and monopolies, which are also very unpopular," he added.
Trump also claimed to be "pro-worker" and "pro-Made in America," but under his leadership, manufacturing jobs have declined due to his tariffs.
"And in 2024, Republicans were saying, this is how we bring manufacturing back. But now people have lived through the opposite. It’s also been very painful for people in rural areas," Bates explained.
Farms are taking a big hit as tariffs are hurting the costs of farming equipment, and Trump's trade war has alienated international buyers of American products and crops.
"And that’s a huge hit to farming communities, because over a fifth of American crops are usually exported," said Bates.
Sargent said that the president may not be aware of it, but top White House allies made it very clear that there's no winning message on tariffs.
He cited two such allies who explained the disaster to Politico. “If it’s not focused on affordability, it’s not helpful.” Tariffs will be reflexively seen as a “bad thing” by voters.
The other Republican commented, “Any conversation about tariffs, unless it’s reducing them, is a bad conversation for Republicans.”
It all comes while a second problem from Republicans is in the background, and that's "people have had to live through seeing this crowd abuse their power in ways that make all the problems they voted to end worse," said Bates. "And you can’t get away from it. You’re reminded every single time you go to the grocery store, or every time you need to put gas in your car."
It isn't merely the tariffs, but the war in Iran, which has raised gas prices, abuse by ICE agents and Trump's lavish spending on rebuilding parts of Washington, historic landmarks and hundreds of millions of dollars on a "maxed out" private presidential plane that only Trump will use and leave the White House with.
"And you’re offended when you see folks in Washington making billions of dollars personally off of you, talking about how one of their highest priorities is building a ballroom, and that they don’t think about everyday people’s finances—that’s a direct quote. And especially when your representative, who’s supposed to fight for your community’s interests and for your interests, is instead selling out to those people and becoming a more corrupt establishment than anything that has existed before in our lifetimes—that’s the sort of thing that can bring about a sea change in public opinion. And it’s why you are seeing the most anti-incumbent mood since at least 2006," Bates closed.