Bell ringing ceremony for German defence technology company Vincorion on their Frankfurt market debut, in Frankfurt, Germany, March 20, 2026. Picture taken with a mobile phone. REUTERS/Tilman Blasshofer
Wall Street may be sending President Donald Trump a message on Monday that he is on borrowed time with his war in Iran.
Trump gave Iran an expletive-laden deadline over Easter Sunday, threatening that if they didn't open the Strait of Hormuz, he would completely destroy their whole country.
Speaking to Trump at the Easter Egg Roll on Monday, reporters asked if blowing up all civilian infrastructure is a "war crime." Trump claimed the real war crime was in Iran having nuclear weapons. Trump has already approved civilian targets, including the tallest bridge in the Middle East, on Friday.
By the close of the stock and commodities markets on Thursday, oil prices had shot up. The Dow Jones had a tumultuous day. It started the morning by falling 2.7 percent. The S&P 500 lost 3.9 percent and Nasdaq-100 futures lost 4.7 percent. The Dow recovered a little, but still closed down. The markets were closed on Good Friday.
At the opening bell on Monday, Fortune reported that everything seemed to be in a holding pattern.
"The market, it seems, is twiddling its thumbs while waiting for the clock to run out," Fortune said. "It even looks like a three-way standoff between Trump, the Iranians and the markets as each waits for the other to blink."
“Iran has little incentive to give up the strait for a temporary reprieve — especially with the US moving more assets into the region,” Gregory Brew, a senior oil analyst at Eurasia Group, wrote on X.
Iranian state media reported 25 people, including six children, were killed overnight due to the bombing campaign in Tehran.
"Every day the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed, the energy crisis deepens," said Fortune. "U.S. crude is trading around $111 a barrel, roughly double where it started the year. Two Qatari LNG tankers attempted to exit the strait Monday but turned back, underscoring just how tense the situation is in the waterway."
Only 35 ships made it through the Strait over the weekend, S&P Global Market Intelligence reported, according to Fortune. Typically, there were 150-plus that moved through it daily before the war began.
Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, told Fortune that getting oil below $100 a barrel would require more than just a ceasefire but a full resumption of flows at the level it was before the war began.
“That’s a long haul from now,” he said.
Until there is full agreement, Kloza thinks oil prices will rise further with "sharp swings" dependent on the headlines.
“Today looks like superficial scratches, whereas other days are like a vein has been busted,” he said. “We haven’t reached the level that inspires demand destruction yet.”