Trump the bully got bullied — and caved: intel expert

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks at Rockland Community College in Suffern, New York, U.S., May 22, 2026. REUTERS/Kylie Cooper

I think the most important thing you need to understand about the president's so-called peace deal with Iran is that the complete terms won't be known until after it's signed. The Post today: "Iranian leaders said Sunday that the terms of the deal would be published only after it is signed Friday — a decision that insulates the agreement from outside lobbying but may also increase the risk it falls apart as negotiators continue to discuss details."

I think the second most important thing you need to understand is the fact that the White House has not presented an alternative to the 14-point "memorandum of understanding" that the Iranian government has already made public. According to a career intelligence analyst I interviewed this morning in the wake of the news, the absence of his own terms of peace strongly suggests that Donald Trump is prepared to give Iran everything it wants.

Shipwreck, as he's known on Bluesky, wouldn't say Trump surrendered.

More like he "caved," he said, "but I guess you could interchange them."

Among other things, here are some of the things Donald Trump agreed to, according to the Mehr news agency, which speaks for the Iran government: a "permanent and immediate" end to the war; lifting the US naval blockade; "a commitment to withdraw [US] forces from around Iran"; lifting oil sanctions; paying Iran $300 billion for reconstruction; "a 60-day negotiation period to reach a final agreement on the nuclear issue"; no new military forces around Iran; no new sanctions on Iran; and unfreezing $24 billion in foreign-held assets.

What does the president get in exchange for giving Iran everything it wants, plus $324 billion in makeup money? Iran "reopens" the Strait of Hormuz "under Iranian arrangements," which means "tolls." (Reuters, today: "Iran's Fars news agency, citing an informed source, said the draft deal recognizes Iranian-Omani authority over navigation services in the strait. Tehran had agreed to allow free passage only for 60 days, after which it plans to collect revenue.")

You will recall that the strait was open before Trump started his war. So in that sense, his "peace deal" is, as the Post said, "a return to a version of the status quo." But that's a rosy interpretation. Thanks to Trump's arrogance and stupidity, Iran’s regime is now harder and more powerful than it was prior to February 28, both domestically and internationally. It is now more threatening to Israel, not less. It is going to be rewarded for holding the strait for ransom, and as a consequence, it has the incentive to hold it for ransom again. As for their nuclear program, who's going to stop them? The superpower Iran brought to its knees.

Donald Trump is weak. He's a loser. And he's terrified we'll find out. So he's rushing to sign a "peace deal" while keeping details secret long enough for him to lie about them. He wants us to think he's tough, and that if the deal goes sideways, he'll start over. "We've done a great job," he said today. "Hopefully, it's gonna be a good relationship and we're gonna get along. And if we don't, we go back to where we started." He won't. The bully got bullied and caved. The defeat is so humiliating, especially to a maga base that values the appearance of strength, that some Republicans are looking around for a fall guy and finding JD Vance.

That's not going to work, Shipwreck told me. Vance and Marco Rubio have kept their distance, probably suspecting how everything would end in humiliation. In any case, he said, "Trump will spend the next 60 days spinning this like crazy and watering it down ... to keep [the peace deal] out of the headlines." And while he's doing all that lying, Shipwreck said, "the globe will be paying for [the war] for years to come in higher prices. It will take many months to recover. But as with all things, we will likely never see the same price levels as before."

Here's the rest of our conversation this morning.

Let's set things straight from the start. Did Trump surrender?

I would use the term "caved," but I guess you could interchange them. From what has come out so far the memorandum of understanding (MOU) is basically the Iranians' 14-point plan. The fact that the US hasn’t released an alternate version to counteract Iran is telling. The White House is saying [the Mehr report on Iran's terms] isn’t correct, but has yet to release their “version,” which, again, is interesting and likely an attempt to cover up the money being exchanged. Iran wouldn’t agree to the MOU unless some form of funds were promised.

So the bully got bullied? That will encourage the bully (Iran) to bully some more, won't it?

Exactly, and it’s why they are negotiating from a position of strength in their mind, and won’t concede much in the 60-day period. The tolls are likely going to be negotiated into some form of face-saving fee to appease both sides. Trump has clearly moved on and doesn’t want to strike anytime soon, likely earliest is late summer or even possibly post-midterms. They will agree to not produce a weapon and restart their program as a clandestine one, just like the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action under President Obama]. Iran is likely desperate to get a nuke to ward off any future western intervention.

The Israeli piece is the interesting dynamic. They will attempt to use Mossad to continue to disrupt the program. But in the end, they may determine a future round of strikes may be needed if Iran gets too close.

As I have said previously, think Hamas-Israel pre-Oct 2023. We are going to have rounds of escalation followed by periods of calm, likely for years to come.

Benjamin Netanyahu pulled a weak president in one direction. Iran pulled a weak president in another. Something's gotta give, right?

Israel is clearly not happy and may be forced to go at it alone, which would be difficult, but not impossible.

Trump only cares about himself. This whole thing blew up in his face and he is going to lie his way out of it. I think both Iran and Israel realize they can’t take his word seriously and will operate along those lines with Iran ignoring his threats and Israel acting on its own, which is why this isn’t going away anytime soon.

The bigger issue is the globe will be paying for this for years to come in higher prices. It will take many months to recover. But as with all things, we will likely never see the same price levels as before.

Some Republicans understand the problem of Trump being seen to have rolled over for Iran. Some are pinning the blame on JD Vance. Is anyone gonna buy it?

Nope. I figure they will look for a fall guy. It does appear even some maga folks aren’t happy with this mess. But in the end, Vance and Marco Rubio both attempted to stay on the sidelines as much as possible.

But Trump will spend the next 60 days spinning this like crazy and watering it down to try and avoid it.

The late summer window when those 60 days expire will be the next checkpoint, so to speak. We will see if they attempt to extend and keep dragging this out to keep it out of the headlines.

I have doubts we ever see the level of action that occurred during the main conflict. Skirmishes and small-scale stuff, but nowhere near what we saw during the war. Trump has moved on, and he wants to avoid it going forward.The ambiguity over the next two to three months is the headache we all have to deal with.

Trump and his team committed war crimes to achieve their "goal" and got nothing for it. Death, destruction, misery the world over – all because of Trump's weakness. Seems impeachable to me. You?

Doubt it, with the current control of Congress by the Republicans, don’t see any chance that occurs. Also proving a war crime can be difficult, I served under multiple D and R Presidents, neither side wants to sign up to scrutinize the level of military ops that way. Obama, Clinton, Bush, Biden and Trump all authorized ops that you could twist into that if you wanted. Not saying it’s right, just saying it’s unfortunately the reality.

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