Disappointing tax refunds 'won't save the midterms' for Trump: policy experts

Sarah K. Burris
12 March

US President Donald Trump attends an event at the White House on February 23, 2026. (Photo: Evelyn Hockstein, Reuters)

As Americans file their 2025 taxes, they're finding they're not getting the huge returns that President Donald Trump and the GOP promised.

MetLife published a report that CNBC's Carl Quintanilla cited on X, saying that the report claims "tax refunds are disappointing."

According to the data he cited, "aggregate payments are up 4 percent or just $7 billion" in the fiscal year to date.

"On net, the stimulative effect of tax refunds between 2025 and 2026 is likely to be well below market expectations. Further, research from Bank of America suggests that only 19 percent of consumers are expecting to spend money based on tax season cash flow," the report said, according to a screen capture by CNBC anchor Kelly Evans. The information was sent to press by MetLife's chief market strategist from MetLife Investment Management (MIM).

Erica York, the vice president of federal tax policy at the pro-business, center-right Tax Foundation, disputes the data, saying that theirs shows something different.

She said that the GOP's "One Big Beautiful Bill" law helped taxpayers by 9.4 percent. According to their data, aggregate payments were up to $12 billion.

Experts said that this data isn't what Republicans were hoping for as they head into the midterm elections.

"Not a great stat for Republican lawmakers who plan to run on the amount of [money] Americans are saving thanks to the tax bill they passed last year," said CNBC's Washington correspondent Emily Wilkins.

"This is what Republicans were counting on to save the midterms before Trump pushed the $5 gas button [by the way]," agreed Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at GroundWork.

Deputy head of US policy at the investment bank Piper Sandler, Donald Schneider, explained that it isn't the right way to view tax refund data.

"They are coming in as expected when we look at data for the filing season (after Jan 26). Refunds are up $13 [billion], non-withheld payments down $12 billion, and [One Big Beautiful Bill Act] beneficiaries file now, not in Jan/Feb," he said.


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