Seven years ago, heavy tariffs levied by President Donald Trump against China triggered a trade war that crimped Alaska’s seafood exports and left fishermen with less money for their catches.
On Saturday, a second round of Trump tariffs is scheduled to take effect, and the impact on Alaska is expected to be even bigger than it was in his first term.
Trump’s new 10% tariff on China, Alaska’s biggest international trading partner, is accompanied by a 25% on imports from Canada, Alaska’s fourth-largest trading partner, and a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico.
All three countries are expected to launch retaliatory tariffs on imports from the United States, making a variety of products more expensive here.
“Alaskans should know that the Trump administration’s tariffs on Canadian goods will make life more expensive for them, and will be damaging to businesses on both sides of the border,” said a spokesperson for Yukon Premier Ranj Pillai on Friday.
“These tariffs will make Canadian goods more expensive in Alaska, as higher costs paid by American importers will be passed on to American consumers,” the spokesperson said, adding that the Yukon government is closely monitoring the situation.
In 2023, Canada imported $596 million in products from Alaska — mostly unrefined minerals and ore concentrates, but also a substantial amount of seafood.
Red Dog Mine in Northwest Alaska sends almost 30% of its zinc to a smelter in British Columbia. In the Southeast Alaska town of Skagway, the Yukon government is planning to spend more than $45 million on a new terminal designed to export ore extracted from Yukon mines.
The price of gasoline, heating fuel and natural gas could also be affected by the tariffs. Alaska’s Nikiski refinery occasionally imports Canadian oil for in-state use, and if Southcentral Alaska switches to imported natural gas, the nearest source is a terminal slated to open in British Columbia this summer.
Sen. Cathy Giessel, R-Anchorage and co-chair of the state Senate’s committee on world trade, said on Friday that she intends to introduce a resolution formally opposing the tariffs.
The state of Alaska’s international trade office, devoted to increasing Alaska’s commerce with other nations, was unable to say what impacts Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s administration expects here.
China, Alaska’s biggest international trading partner, imported $1.2 billion worth of Alaska goods in 2023, with almost half that total consisting of seafood.
No state exports more seafood internationally than Alaska does, and when a Dunleavy-commissioned committee met early this year to craft a plan to reverse the seafood industry’s decline, stopping tariff increases was a major topic.
Jeremy Woodrow, director of the state-run Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute, said on Friday that if the tariffs encourage Americans to buy more Alaska seafood, then it’s possible that Alaska could avoid an economic hit.
The value of the U.S. dollar, the value of foreign currencies, plus normal supply and demand also matter in how much fish gets exported where, he said. Tariffs are only part of the equation.
Seven years ago, they were a conclusive part.
“We lost China as a destination market because of those high tariffs,” he said, adding that the trade that exists today tends to involve fish being exported to China for processing, then re-exported to another country for a final destination.
This time around, he said, “I think a lot of us are looking at Trump’s tariffs, especially for Canada and China, as more of a bargaining chip, and that these aren’t a lasting tariff.”
Trump has said he wants Canada to do more to interdict the flow of illegal drugs coming to the United States. If Trump thinks Canada has done enough, he could lift the tariffs.
In the meantime, Woodrow said, ASMI will be working to encourage Americans to buy more Alaska seafood and will continue to grow the market for Alaska seafood in places like South America, which is unaffected — so far — by Trump’s tariff actions.
Alaska Beacon is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Alaska Beacon maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Andrew Kitchenman for questions: info@alaskabeacon.com.