Donald Trump as he makes a campaign stop at manufacturer FALK Production in Walker, Michigan, U.S. September 27, 2024. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo
Manufacturing jobs have been steadily withering in the US job market, and according to an analysis from the Wall Street Journal editorial board, Donald Trump's "willy-nilly" tariff policies and the uncertainty around them are most likely to blame.
In a piece published Tuesday evening, the board examined recently released job growth data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which it called "not great." While the economy added 64,000 jobs overall in November, according to the new data, this came after a net loss of 105,000 in October. The board rationalized the losses to an extent, noting that they were mostly due to government job cuts, but still noted that the overall picture was weak, explaining that "private employers aren’t laying off workers in large numbers but they also aren’t hiring all that many."
The board's main theory for the shabby state of the job market was simple: Trump's tariffs are holding back private companies from investing in new jobs.
"Our main suspect is the impact of tariffs and the uncertainty Mr. Trump’s willy-nilly border tax policies have caused," the board explained. "The Supreme Court may soon overturn his emergency tariffs as illegal, and many CEOs want to see how that case turns out and how Mr. Trump responds. Investment and hiring may also turn up next year as the tax cut provisions of this year’s tax and spending bill kick in."
The biggest sign in the available data that Trump's tariffs are throttling job growth, according to the board, is the gradual decline in the manufacturing sector. From January to November, manufacturing jobs have declined by around 58,000 overall -- 19,000 of them in the last three months -- despite Trump's claims that tariffs would help restore the sector's health and prominence.
The analysis also cited the 15,000 jobs lost since January in the "motor vehicles and parts" industry and the "flat" growth trend in the steel-making and aluminum manufacturing industries, all of which are subject to notably high tariffs under Trump's policies.
"Some renaissance," the board concluded. "If Mr. Trump wants a manufacturing revival, he’ll drop his border taxes, and let his other tax policies help hiring and investment."