President Donald Trump reacts as he holds a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., April 30, 2025. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein
Whoever attempts to follow President Donald Trump as the de facto leader of the Republican Party and the MAGA movement has a remarkably tough challenge ahead of them, but according to the conservative Washington Examiner paper, the most favored successor has such a tough "high-wire act" on their hands that it might just be "impossible."
Despite tough headwinds and historic unpopularity, Vice President JD Vance remains the nominal favorite to succeed Trump as the 2028 GOP nominee for president. In a new piece from Thursday, the Examiner argued that his heavily expected White House bid presents such an impossible mission that it would leave Tom Cruise stumped.
The outlet, noted for its strong conservative bent, highlighted recent reports suggesting that the prospect of actually carrying out a campaign has Vance "reconsidering" a 2028 run. A "close look at the obstacles ahead reveals why it’s not crazy" for the vice president to be thinking about this, as "getting to the swearing-in ceremony will require a political high-wire act for the ages."
"Consider Step 1: Vance must embrace a president who, as Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) learned the hard way, still runs the Republican Party, while not losing his New Right base that deplores that president’s war in Iran," the Examiner explained. "Recent polling underscores the challenge. The vice president has been hovering in the 30-40 percent range for the GOP nomination in recent months, down from highs in the 60s in 2025. That base is likely composed of New Right populists who see Vance as their champion and MAGA loyalists who’ve transferred their allegiance to him as Trump’s natural successor. Traditional conservatives and libertarians, meanwhile, appear likely to oppose him."
To manage this, Vance would need to balance unshaking loyalty to Trump while also trying to appease a portion of the GOP coalition that is sick of his war, and his chaos overall. Trump is famously unable to stomach any amount of criticism and might rescind any support from Vance in the face of any from him, while other candidates will be able to "gleefully paint any ambiguity on Iran as proof that Vance is in cahoots with Israel."
"Vance will need to perform the same balancing act on the economy," the outlet continued. "Trump will expect his second-in-command to parrot his boasts about 'the hottest country in the world.' But the New Right’s grievances about Trump’s focus on global issues at the expense of the homeland won’t simply disappear. Trump’s economy has yet to produce a manufacturing renaissance or reduce the cost of living, and gas prices have soared as a result of the war. Unless the economy starts humming in a major way, this will be another wire Vance has to walk in heels."
The Examiner ultimately concluded that Vance might opt to sit out the White House battle for at least a little while, to get distance from this nightmarish political gauntlet.
"But the combination of Vance’s youth and the sheer complexity of the mission might convince him to hold off a cycle or two," the report added. "In 2032 or 2036, Vance could run on his own terms, advancing his own vision free of Trump’s baggage and without losing any of the gravitas that comes with being a former vice president."