Trump is 'in serious jeopardy' if he loses the election: legal expert

26 October 2024

If former President Donald Trump hopes to remain a free man, his only path is once again getting elected president of the United States.

That's according to Syracuse University law professor Greg Germain, who recently told Newsweek that Trump is likely to see his legal troubles intensify after the November election if he comes up short in 10 days. Germain is specifically paying attention to the two ongoing federal cases against the former president, which could either ramp up or be scuttled entirely depending on the outcome of the November 5 election.

"If Trump loses the election, he is in serious jeopardy in the federal criminal cases," Germain said. "Especially the documents case if Judge Cannon's dismissal under the appointments clause is reversed, or corrected by the Justice Department, following the appeal."

As Germain noted, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon — whom Trump appointed to the Southern District of Florida just months before he was voted out of office — threw out the ex-president's 37-count felony indictment in July. In her decision striking the case, Cannon cited Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas' argument that Department of Justice special counsel Jack Smith was unconstitutionally appointed. Thomas made that argument as a part of his concurring opinion in the Trump v. United States case that granted Trump's request for absolute broad criminal immunity for all "official acts."

However, Smith has appealed Cannon's ruling to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, which has ruled against Cannon on two separate occasions. If the 11th Circuit reverses Cannon, the former president's only remaining option is a last-ditch appeal to the Supreme Court. But if Trump loses the election, the Court may decide to not weigh in, allowing the classified documents case — considered to be Smith's strongest given the wealth of evidence he's amassed — to move forward.

On the other hand, Trump winning the election would almost certainly mean the end of both cases. The former president has already indicated he would fire Smith "within two seconds" of taking office if he wins in November. In addition to being fired, Smith may even be deported, as Trump recently called him " mentally deranged" and said he would have him "thrown out of the country."

As president, Trump would have the power to pardon himself in both ongoing federal cases. He could also have his appointed attorney general dismiss both cases, and Trump has already toyed with the idea of appointing Cannon to head the DOJ. His only remaining legal headaches would be the two ongoing state-level cases, where presidential pardon power would not save him.

New York Acting Supreme Court Judge Juan Merchan is due to sentence Trump in late November, after previously pushing his sentencing date back twice: First from July 18 to September 18, and from September 18 to November 26. Trump could face up to 20 years in prison for his 34 state-level felony convictions, though it's likely he would face far less jail time, if any, given his status as a nonviolent first-time offender. And if he wins the election, Trump's attorneys will likely argue that the duties of the presidency should take precedent over his criminal sentence.

Trump also faces serious prison time if convicted in Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis' RICO indictment for alleged election interference. His attorneys have already argued that the trial should be put on hold until 2029 if their client wins the 2024 election. Willis' prosecution is currently on hold while the Georgia Court of Appeals weighs Trump's attempt to have her removed from the case. A decision isn't expected until spring of 2025.

Click here to read Newsweek's full report.

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