On Wednesday, the bombshell announcement that the Trump administration will allow Saudi Arabia to launch a nuclear program drew widespread condemnation from critics asserting it would fuel the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Then Thursday morning, President Donald Trump attempted to backpedal, claiming the deal was conditional on the Saudis normalizing relations with Israel. But according to sources, he’s about to learn the limits of his social media power.
This is according to veteran foreign affairs reporter Lauren Rozen, who on Thursday said that when asked about the new conditions Trump is trying to add to the deal, a Saudi source told her that “it was signed,” so there was “nothing to renegotiate,” adding, “Tweets don’t overturn signed agreements.”
Trump’s post in question made a number of assertions that appear to conflict with reality. According to Trump, “The Civil Nuclear Deal (There will be no enrichment of material!) being made between the United States Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia, which pertains only to non-military use such as the ones that Iran and UAE (and others) already have, will be approved, but is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords. The United States is not opposed to Civil (Non-Enriched) Nuclear Facilities.”
First of all, Trump’s claim that there would be “no enrichment” not only clashes with how experts have assessed the deal, but is outright impossible. While the agreement theoretically focuses on the U.S. bringing nuclear power technology to Saudi Arabia, according to Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, the plan appeared to let Saudi Arabia enrich its own nuclear fuel in-country. Said Guzansky, "Saudi insistence on enrichment in Saudi Arabia ... was the thing that got [previous] negotiations stuck and U.S. administrations, one after another, did not permit enrichment.” What’s more, all nuclear facilities — whether for energy or weapons — rely on enriched material. In other words, Trump’s insistence that there will be “non-enriched” facilities is nonsensical.
But perhaps most importantly of all, as Rozen’s source pointed out, Trump’s post has no legal weight. A number of experts have agreed.
“The U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal was signed yesterday,” said Axios Global Affairs Correspondent Barak Ravid. “But at the current time, Saudi Arabia signing a peace deal with Israel doesn't seem like a realistic near-term scenario.”
“Most normal countries go by what the actual text of an agreement says,” posted former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro. “And while Trump is willing to screw the countries he doesn't like (Canada, e.g.) by violating signed agreements, my bet is today’s outburst is momentary spin to respond to criticism the deal is getting, and then the deal goes forward as written because it is a country he likes (and who knows who is getting cut in on the reactor deals).”
Center for International Policy Senior Fellow Sina Toossi warned that there could be wider diplomatic implications for the president’s attempt at rule by social media, declaring, “Trump has spent years destroying America's negotiating credibility. When even close partners have to wonder whether a signed agreement will survive his next post, diplomacy becomes exponentially harder.”