John Roberts and Donald Trump (REUTERS)
President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act on Wednesday — and on Thursday, an expert pointed out that this may help crush the potentially massive Blue Wave of Democratic lawmakers in the 2026 midterm elections.
“The Supreme Court’s April 29 decision in Louisiana v. Callais curtailed Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, the provision of the law responsible for the creation of majority-minority districts,” wrote Cook Political Report’s Erin Covey, an expert in handicapping US House races, on Thursday. “The ruling has prompted an effort to redraw Louisiana’s maps before the 2026 midterm, which could net them up to two seats.”
Covey added, “Republicans may also try to redistrict in other southern states — including Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama and Georgia — but it’s unclear whether gains will be possible for 2026 given the tight timelines lawmakers would be under to make changes.”
Because of the Supreme Court’s recent decision, there will be significantly fewer competitive House races in the future, to a lesser extent in the 2026 midterms and to a greater extent during the 2028 House races. Because of preexisting partisan gerrymandering, Democrats already only have an opportunity to flip so-called “toss up” 16 House seats, and that number may soon shrink even further.
“A best-case scenario for Republicans: new maps in Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri and Louisiana result in 13 Republican pick-ups, while new maps in California, Virginia and Utah result in seven Democratic pick-ups. Republicans would flip five seats, on net,” Covey reported. By contrast, “a best-case scenario for Democrats: new maps in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas result in five Republican pick-ups. But new maps in California, Utah, and Virginia also allow Democrats to flip 10 seats, resulting in Democrats picking up five seats, on net.”
Overall Covey said that Democrats have gerrymandering opportunities in California, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Utah, Virginia and Wisconsin, while Republicans have them in Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas
Despite Democrats’ Supreme Court-imposed disadvantage, that does not mean they will fail to retake control of the House. In fact, Fox News’ chief political analyst Brit Hume warned on Thursday that no amount of GOP chicanery may save them from losing control of Congress.
“I think if the election were held today, given in the middle of this conflict, that the House would be obviously gone. And there’s a good chance that the Senate would go, too,” Hume said, adding that the president could help his fortunes by solving the war in Iran.