While the full implications for future elections remain unclear, according to a new analysis published by the New York Times, polls increasingly show Donald Trump is doing "everything in his power" to wreck the GOP's chances of sustaining a "multiracial working-class" coalition.
Writing in the piece on Tuesday morning, veteran political reporter Thomas Edsall argued that the Republican Party's chances of maintaining the "multiracial working-class base" that swept Trump back into power are effectively dead. Right-wing commentators had made considerable noise about the prospect of a fundamental shift in American politics after Trump saw surprising and significant gains from voters of color in the 2024 race.
"The next two sets of elections nationwide, this year and in 2028, will determine the scope of the damage Trump has inflicted on his party’s coalition," Edsall wrote. "Polling shows substantial self-inflicted damage..."
Citing data from the NPR/PBS/Marist surveys conducted in February 2025 and last month, Edsall put forward significant polling data that shows how much Trump has squandered his goodwill with Black and Latino voters.
"The surveys showed Trump’s ratings among Black voters falling from 36 percent favorable and 55 percent unfavorable in February 2025 to 32 favorable and 64 unfavorable last month. Among Latino voters, Trump’s ratings fell from 44 percent favorable and 46 unfavorable to 38 favorable and 54 unfavorable. Put another way, Trump’s net favorability fell by 13 percentage points among Black voters and by 14 points among Latinos."
Edsall further cited a statement from Mike Madrid, a GOP strategist, to Politico. Madrid said that Trump's "ICE raids and government overreach" now meant that "the districts that Republicans thought were their future a year ago are likely to be their undoing."
"[It's] hard to find another situation in the past 50 years where a political party has squandered a generational opportunity like this,” Madrid concluded.
This shift against Trump can also be seen for the Republican Party overall, though more "decisisively" for Black voters than Latino ones.
"In the 10 months between the two Economist/YouGov surveys, Black voters became decisively more negative, shifting from 23 percent favorable and 59 unfavorable toward the Republican Party to an overwhelming 8 favorable and 66 unfavorable. Hispanics, however, changed very little, from 31 [percent] favorable and 54 [percent] unfavorable toward the Republicans to 24 favorable and 51 unfavorable."
Despite the seemingly small shift for Latino voters, Edsall noted that national races can often be decided by margins of around 2 percent, meaning that small changes can still tip elections.
"Trump has inflicted serious damage on his party’s attempt to build an increasingly multiracial coalition," Edsall concluded. "The elections this year and in 2028 will, in all likelihood, show a step backward on this front."