EMPORIA, KANSAS, USA, October 6, 2020 Congressman Dr. Roger Marshall Republican senatorial candidate talks with supporters today at the Lyon County fairgrounds with the “Keep Kansas Great Bus Tour” (Shutterstock Asset id_1829211071)
On Monday, new reporting revealed that a deep red state has become a midterm toss-up due to economic calamity caused by President Donald Trump's war with Iran. According to the Hill, Republican senators and insiders say that a Democratic candidate for the Senate has a slight lead in Kansas, and if he wins, it will be the first time the state has had a blue senator in nearly a century.
“Senators in both parties say the Senate midterm election battleground map has expanded significantly six weeks before Election Day, putting the GOP majority in greater jeopardy,” writes the Hill. “Several solidly Republican-leaning states — including Kansas and Nebraska — are now seen as being in play, the senators say.” Senators who spoke with the Hill say that “Democratic candidates have growing momentum because of rising energy prices,” with voters “blaming the increasing costs on the military conflict with Iran, which President Trump started back in February without prior authorization from Congress.”
Polling has shown close races in Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Texas and Alaska, and the Democratic candidate pulling ahead in North Carolina. These states already had the GOP worried, but now numbers out of Kansas and Nebraska have them on red alert. According to the Hill, “One GOP senator said internal polls show the Kansas and Nebraska Senate races are very close and the ‘overall environment’ is bad for Republicans. ‘Energy prices are way too high. The war, people don’t like. And the real reason they don’t like the war is it’s making everything more expensive. Voters are not in a good mood. In farm states like Nebraska and Kansas, farmers are just irate about the beef issue, they’re irate about energy prices,’ the senator said. ‘It’s a tough environment.’” The situation, the senator said, is looking “grim” for Republicans.
“They’re frustrated and they’re hurt,” agreed Senator Mike Rounds (R-SD), noting that many farmers felt betrayed by Trump’s decision to import beef to bring down prices. According to the Hill, “Rounds said that’s ‘absolutely’ giving Democrats a chance to win in Kansas and Nebraska, where the local economies depend heavily on farming. A new Hill/Emerson College Polling survey conducted among 750 likely voters in Kansas from Sept. 15-16 showed Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton leading incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, 45 percent to 43 percent. A Republican source familiar with the race said private polling also showed Hamilton with a slight lead. Some polls showed a tight race in Nebraska, where independent candidate Dan Osborn is within a few points of incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R).” And as the Hill notes, “Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.”