Republicans ‘preparing to move on’ from loser Trump

In recent weeks, a string of primary losses among MAGA candidates has revealed an important political shift. After a decade of holding the GOP in his “vise-like grip,” President Donald Trump’s endorsement is losing its power. According to MS NOW political contributor Michael Cohen, this is a sign that “Republicans are preparing to move on.”

As Cohen wrote on Friday, “Over the past few weeks, Trump’s hold over the GOP has visibly weakened. On Tuesday, three Republican candidates endorsed by Trump lost primaries, including two in his home state of Florida. In Florida’s 19th Congressional District, Trump put his weight behind Catalina Lauf, a 33-year old former Commerce Department staffer, who already lost two earlier congressional bids in Illinois. In Florida’s 7th District, Trump’s endorsement was not enough to save scandal-ridden Rep. Cory Mills, who lost by double digits to a former television news anchor and political newbie, Ryan Elijah. In Wyoming, Megan Degenfelder, the state’s education superintendent, bagged Trump’s endorsement for governor, but it wasn’t enough to overcome state senator Eric Barlow, who easily beat her by more than 15 points.”

What’s more, Cohen notes that these “black eyes for Trump come on the heels of Mike ‘The MyPillow Guy’ Lindell’s failed candidacy for the Minnesota GOP gubernatorial nomination, Tennessee Rep. Andy Ogles losing renomination and perhaps the most embarrassing result of all: Amir Hassan, a Navy veteran, falling short in a congressional race in Michigan. Hassan was defeated by Tom Smith, a retired engineer who had dropped out of the race weeks earlier. In South Carolina, Trump’s endorsement of state Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette pushed her into a runoff against Alan Wilson, the state’s attorney general, but she also lost. Now Sen. Darline Graham, the president’s pick to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died in July, appears to be in trouble after an embarrassing flub in a recent debate with Rep. Ralph Norman and an admission that she is ‘not that informed on national security.’”

That’s 10 Trump-endorsed nominees who have lost in this cycle — equal to the number lost in 2018, 2020, and 2024 combined. Six of those came in August. Part of Trump’s problem is that he is endorsing blatantly bad candidates, but according to Cohen, “it’s also increasingly difficult to ignore other visible signs of slippage. An Economist/YouGov poll out this week put Trump’s approval rating among Republicans at 79 percent, which is nearly 10 points lower than his average rating with Republicans in his first term. Those who ‘strongly approve’ of Trump are below 50 percent, representing a 20-point drop from when he first took office." Furthermore, a Financial Times poll showed 20 percent of Republicans disapprove of Trump — an eight-point drop in net approval from just a month earlier. Cohen writes that “even more stunning is an American Research Group poll, which has Trump at 69 percent with Republicans, with 29 percent disapproving.”

With these numbers in mind, asks Cohen, “has Trump finally lost his mojo with Republican voters? After 10 years of Trump holding a vise-like grip over the GOP, only a fool would make such a prediction. Trump remains the most powerful force in the Republican Party, and there’s no remotely close second banana. At the same time, Trump’s declining approval numbers among GOP voters and his faltering endorsement record suggest a subtle transformation is beginning to unfold. A small but growing minority of Republicans are preparing to move on.”

Cohen argues this separation will become more pronounced as political events unfold. On the cusp of being a lame-duck and unable to run for reelection, “the political world will, beginning in 2027, shift its attention to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.” And if Democrats manage to flip one or both chambers of Congress, that decline will only hasten as “members in more vulnerable seats will have little choice but to start looking for ways to subtly distance themselves from the president.” While Cohen notes that some conservatives will attempt to stay in Trump’s good graces, if his “approval ratings stay in the mid-30s, Republicans will be looking for ways to carve out their own identity in a party that has been controlled, lock, stock and barrel by Trump since 2015.”

Cohen warns that Trump’s dwindling power doesn’t mean Republicans are ready to ditch MAGA politics, writing, “The GOP has been recreated in Trump’s image, and every Republican will continue to ape Trump’s policies and proclivities. Indeed, the 2028 GOP race will likely feature one candidate after another trying to win over the party’s MAGA base.”

“But,” Cohen concludes, “Trump’s dominance of the Republican Party is almost certainly past its peak.”