Trump biggest midterm promise is crumbling as almost no one believes it

President Donald Trump speaks at the Republican National Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, September 9, 2026. REUTERS/Evan Vucci

President Donald Trump's midterm convention was a bust for several reasons. It only pulled in three million viewers, well below the 25 million who watched a football game instead; the turnout was so sparse that Trump begged his audience not to go to the bathroom since media outlets might focus on the empty seats; and he closed one speech with a demand that his supporters literally pledge allegiance to him as a president.

Yet perhaps the most notable moment from the event was when Trump promised he would send checks of $5,000 to every American adult if Republicans retained control of Congress after the midterms. The president presented this as a sort of bribe, implying that he would not support such checks unless he got what he wanted from the American people. Now a new poll finds Americans do not believe he would stay true to his word anyway.

Journalist G. Elliott Morris reported on this by breaking down his recent Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, which he fielded Sept. 16–21, and which set out to learn how Americans feel about Trump's $5,000 pledge.

"We ran a survey experiment where respondents were broken into three groups," Morris explained. "One third of respondents were asked whether they support 'sending $5,000 payments to American households,' full stop. A third were told Donald Trump proposed it. And a third got the deal as he conditioned it in Dallas: the checks go out if Republicans win in November."

Morris added, "When the payments were described as a neutral policy, 53 [percent] of adults said they supported them while 35 [percent] opposed them, a net of +18. When we told voters it was Trump’s idea, support ticked down to +12, a difference inside the margin of error. But when we described the checks as he actually offered them, voters were opposed, at 35 [percent] support and 54 [percent] oppose, net −18."

He acknowledged that it is not easy to poll people about specific policy subjects like this, since one must distinguish between their feelings about a policy proposal in the abstract and how they feel about that same proposal when it is linked to a specific politician.

"This type of thing is tricky to poll about, since people generally support transfers, but we had a reasonable belief the conditioning on GOP victory would turn voters off the idea," Morris explained.

Overall, Morris pointed out that the midterms convention did little more than reinforce in voters' minds that this election is a referendum on Trump's performance — and that this does not help the Republican cause.

"A convention built around Trump naturally makes the midterm all about Trump," Morris wrote. "If you’re a Republican running in a competitive district, this hurts you, because it makes the election all about the guy with a 34 [percent] approval rating."

From Your Site Articles