Polling expert reveals 'profound problems' for Trump as his support tanks

31 March

President Donald Trump looks on as he speaks to members of the media aboard Air Force One en route to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, March 29, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

President Donald Trump's approval with voters continues to slide, with polling expert Nate Silver revealing that he is facing "profound problems" as his average rating hits a historic low.

Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, a website dedicated to polling analysis that offers a widely referenced average of numerous major polls for major elections and approval ratings. In a post to X, he revealed that Trump's average approval rating with voters had dipped beneath 40 percent for the first time in his second term.

"Trump's approval rating just fell below 40 percent in our tracking for the first time," Silver wrote in a post. "And his net approval rating is now -17.4, also a new low and down about 5 points over the past several weeks."

Silver accompanied that post with a graph showing the overall movement of Trump's average approval rating on FiveThirtyEight since his return to the White House. While there have been some brief periods where the average increased, overall, it has been decreasing precipitously since Jan. 2025, when he returned to office with an average net approval of 10 points.

As for what finally dragged Trump's rating beneath 40 percent, Silver suggested the impact of skyrocketing gas prices resulting from his war with Iran, but also noted that he is facing many other significant issues.

"Obviously, gas prices are a big factor. But Trump has profound problems," Silver added in a follow-up post. "There *are* signs of erosion among his base. Only 22 percent of Americans have a *strongly* favorable view of Trump. 2028 aspirants are starting to pull away from him. One wonders about the effect of his age, too."

In a post to his personal site about the trend, Silver noted that Trump was still a few points off from the very worst averages of his first term in the White House and of his predecessor, Joe Biden. Due to the modern era of highly polarized politics, he predicted that there was likely a firm floor for support that Trump will not be able to dip below for now, but also suggested that he might not be able to bounce back, due to how many problems he has directly caused.

"There’s no reason to doubt that the extreme political polarization puts a cap on a modern president’s approval ceiling — and probably also raises his floor," Silver wrote. "And yet, when I look back on that chart of Trump’s numbers, here’s what I’m struck by: so many of these political wounds have been self-inflicted."

He continued: "In fact, you could argue that he’s actually been lucky not to have more problems. There haven’t been a lot of natural disasters during Trump 2.0, or major wars (like Ukraine or Gaza) breaking out that Trump didn’t start himself. The biggest economic shocks have also been Trump-caused: the tariffs last year, and now the oil shock. Meanwhile, he’s benefited from the boom in AI investment that has helped to keep tech stocks afloat, without which we might be in full-on bear market."

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