GOP 'in absolutely huge trouble' in swing state as Trump plans visit

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 25, 2025. REUTERS Nathan Howard

President Donald Trump is desperate to maintain his hold on the Republican-dominated House, so he’s personally fighting for plenty of embattled seats. But some seats are going to be a much harder sell for him and his Republican Party.

"The Republicans are just in absolutely huge trouble in Wisconsin. I think that more so than any of the polls would say … the fact that all those Republicans are leaving the state Legislature, they're sort of telling us with their actions what they expect," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political newsletter at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

Trump is making his first trip to the Badger State since he won here nearly two years ago, visiting one of the nation's few battleground congressional districts, but the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel says he’s coming at a time “when his approval among Wisconsin voters is at an all-time low.

“The visit comes at a time when the president's tariffs and recent attacks on Iran have produced gale-force headwinds for Republicans in their effort to preserve their power in Congress and in state government in Wisconsin, an effort made more complicated by the retirements of the Legislature's two GOP leaders and key members of both houses,” reports the Journal.

Nevertheless, Trump is planning to discuss agricultural issues during a Friday roundtable event at a farm in Chippewa Falls, which lies in the 3rd Congressional District − a swing district held by Republican incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden. Van Orden's district is one of just 18 congressional districts considered a toss-up in the upcoming midterm election, and the Trump administration heavily focused upon it. The paper reports Trump's visit comes days after U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. held an earlier event with Van Orden.

Van Orden won the district twice, but he defeated his opponent by about 3 points two years ago. Now one of those opponents, Democrats Rebecca Cooke, will be on his heels again this year, if she surpasses Democrat Emily Berge in the primaries.

“But the political environment this year favors Democrats, who have won governor races and special elections in other parts of the country since Trump took office,” reports the Sentinel. “In Wisconsin, liberals won a seat on the state Supreme Court in April by a stunning 20-point margin. Republicans did not even bother to field a candidate in another election for a court that the GOP dominated just a handful of years ago.

This is a hard fall for a state that voted for Trump in 2024.

The Sentinel reports Trump's influence “remains strong among Republican voters – 71 percent said they would vote for a 2026 primary candidate endorsed by Trump. However, it also notes that a nationwide Marquette University Law School poll released two days before Trump's visit to western Wisconsin found his approval rating dropped to 38 percent, the lowest point so far in his second term.

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