U.S. Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) speaks on behalf of one of U.S. President Donald Trump's judicial nominees during a Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 30, 2025. REUTERS/File Photo
The conservative Supreme Court and Southern GOP legislators may be working furiously to gerrymander themselves into a permanent majority, but Zeteo writer John Harwood said Senate Congressional seats are not so heavily impacted by those undemocratic efforts.
Unlike congressional House districts that Republicans are working feverishly to gerrymander into single-party permanent rule, Senate seats are voted at-large by whole state populations. This means the outcomes of Senate seats are more easily impacted by the popularity of whatever party is floating voters’ boat, rather than politicians’ attempts to cherry-pick their own voters.
But President Donald Trump’s steadily eroding public standing – 35 percent approval in the latest CNN polling average – has Democrats confident, said Harwood. And the Senate is “the chokepoint for a president’s Cabinet and judicial appointments.”
“Ohio has grown increasingly red since Barack Obama carried it in his 2012 re-election. But Democrats have a strong shot with former Senator Sherrod Brown, an economic populist who lost by just 3.5 percentage points last election cycle as Trump won Ohio by triple that margin,” reports Harwood.
Democrats also haven’t won an Alaska Senate seat since 2008, but the party managed to recruit “an ideal candidate” in Mary Peltola, who’s already been elected statewide and faces vulnerable incumbent Dan Sullivan. And while Iowa no longer figures in Democratic presidential planning, Trump’s standing has fallen underwater there, thanks to his policies hurtful impact on farmers. Plus, incumbent Senator Joni Ernst has decided not to run.
Betting on Texas never pays off for Dems, but Trump managed to erase his standing with the state’s Latino voters, and Harwood said Democratic nominee James Talarico appears to have an “unusual gift” as a Christian-themed communicator in an unusually religious state.
Meanwhile, up in Maine, Harwood said Sen. Susan Collins appears to have the same problem many of her GOP brethren are suffering: they’re beholden to a very unpopular president. Even Colins’ “thoughtful-moderate persona” appears to have “passed its political expiration date,” said Harwood.