Best-case scenario for GOP is for Trump to 'lose and lose soundly' in November: columnist

04 September 2024

If former President Donald Trump loses the November election, it could actually serve as a long-term victory for the Republican Party, according to Politico columnist Jonathan Martin.

On Wednesday, Martin argued that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins this fall that it would be the surest way for the Republican Party to rebuild itself in the wake of Trump. In fact, Martin posited that if Harris wins in a landslide, it could allow the GOP to have a clean break from the man who has had total control over the party and its base for the better part of a decade.

"The best possible outcome in November for the future of the Republican Party is for former President Donald Trump to lose and lose soundly," Martin wrote. "Trump will never concede defeat, no matter how thorough his loss. Yet the more decisively Vice President Kamala Harris wins the popular vote and electoral college the less political oxygen he’ll have to reprise his 2020 antics; and, importantly, the faster Republicans can begin building a post-Trump party."

Martin's logic is that if Harris wins, Republicans will be ideally positioned for a huge comeback in the 2026 midterm elections, as Democrats will have held the White House for six years and the American public may be more eager for a Republican Congress to serve as a counterweight. He also noted that by then, high-profile Republican governors will be top candidates for U.S. Senate races, like Glenn Youngkin in Virginia, Brian Kemp in Georgia and Chris Sununu in New Hampshire.

"As one GOP senator put it to me in hoping for Trump’s defeat: Who do you think would have a tougher 2026 reelection, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Georgia) under Harris or Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) under Trump?" Martin wrote. "A Democratic House majority would also be far easier for Republicans to reverse under Harris than Trump. And the GOP would almost certainly find more success in the 36 governors’ races taking place that year if they were running against the so-called six-year-itch."

Should Trump suffer a humiliating loss in both the popular vote and Electoral College, Martin argued that it would make it that much more difficult for the former president to justify attempts to overturn the election results — something even Republicans are admitting he's already planning to do. And in the event of a stinging defeat, it could allow the base an excuse to abandon Trump and move in a different direction. But some Republican leaders aren't so certain it will be that easy.

“You’re assuming Republicans have a top of the ticket problem and not a voter base problem,” former GOP strategist Terry Sullivan, told Martin. “It’s not like our leaders have been leading the voters to the wilderness against the voters’ judgment.”

Martin acknowledged that Republicans have an uphill battle to fight if they want to distance themselves from the 45th president of the United States who drove his opponents out of positions of power and facilitated the wholesale takeover of the GOP by his own family. And he noted that a Trump loss would likely fuel conspiracy theories among the base about Harris surfacing as a last-minute "emergency" nominee.

"So, yes, moving past Trump in the aftermath of another defeat will hardly be easy," he wrote. "But it’s essential if Republicans want to become a viable national party once more."

Click here to read Martin's column in full.

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