President Donald Trump observes a military demonstration at Fort Bragg, North Carolina on Tuesday, June 10, 2025, during a visit to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
Markets were elated on Wednesday morning with reports that the war with Iran could end soon.
Axios reported on Wednesday that the U.S. and Iran were closing in on a one-page deal, but there was reason for skepticism, as this is the same claim that has been made several times over the past 60-plus days.
Citing the Axios piece, The Kobeisi Letter, a commentary newsletter on the global capital markets, parroted the report, telling its 1.8 million X followers that "U.S. oil prices were experiencing a sharp reversal on Wednesday, now up +8 percent in 60 minutes, as doubts grow over an Axios-reported potential deal to end the Iran War."
It didn't go over well with observers who have already been fooled more than once by such claims.
Douglas A. Boneparth, president of Bone Fide Wealth and CNBC advisor, commented: "Last month, we won the war and the market went higher. This month, we won the war again and the market goes higher. I can’t wait for next month when we win the war once more and go even higher."
“'Axios-reported.' You guys really can’t be this gullible?" mocked geopolitical analyst Aidan Simardone.
Former Republican operative Tim Miller made similar comments, conveying his skepticism.
"Surprised that investors are not convinced by Axios' 19th pre-market report that a deal is right around the corner. Eventually, it will be correct but so far shooting 0 percent from the field," Miller wrote on X.
Energy markets expert Vandana Hari, of Vanda Insights, issued a reality check: "IF the Axios report about the US expecting a one-page MOU with Iran to end the war is true... And IF Iran confirms... And IF it is indeed signed... And IF it is honoured... And IF negotiations to reopen SoH succeed in the 30-day period... And IF the agreement works to indeed reopen it.. And IF nothing derails the process again... We MIGHT see some more oil starting to come out of the Persian Gulf in several weeks. See how far we are?"
"How many times now [has] Axios reported the war is ending?" asked David Scutt, senior market analyst.
Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday morning, "Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran. If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
An advisor to Supreme Leader Ebrahim Raisi disputed the report, Reuters said.
"The Axios text is more of an American wish list than a reality; Americans will not gain anything in a war they are losing that they have not gained in face-to-face negotiations," Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for parliament's foreign policy and national security committee, posted on X.