Trump checked out as his own war hits 'near-total collapse': analysis

President Donald Trump looks towards the demolished East Wing of the White House, the future site of Trump's ballroom, at the White House in Washington, D.C., January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

The war with Iran is spiraling more than ever as the tenuous ceasefire reaches "a state of near-total collapse," all the while, according to a new analysis from The Bulwark, President Donald Trump appears checked out of the conflict that he started.

Writing for the outlet on Monday, anti-Trump conservative commentator William Kristol observed that "the danger in the Strait of Hormuz is as bad as ever," after "Iran abruptly reversed course Saturday" on the ceasefire deal that much-touted by Trump, "firing on at least two merchant vessels and insisting the strait would remain closed as long as America maintained its military blockade of Iran’s ports." In response, the U.S. military seized an Iranian vessel it claimed had attempted to run the blockade, prompting Iran to back out of the next round of peace talks in Pakistan.

Kristol argued that the reason for the difficulty in resolving this Iran quagmire "isn’t just that Trump [is] low on options," but also because Trump increasingly seems to lack any meaningful understanding of what is happening with the conflict.

"More and more, he barely seems to understand what’s going on in the conflict at even a basic layman’s level," Kristol explained. "His pronouncements — whether they be threats, triumphant announcements, or even just descriptions of what’s underway in the strait —resemble reality less with every passing day. Sometimes this is a good thing: His genocidal threats that 'a whole civilization will die tonight' never materialized. But other times it’s simply an alarming reminder of how fitfully and flightily the president is monitoring his own war."

Kristol further highlighted Trump's repeated insistence that the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has completely closed off the critical waterway, something his administration has had to scramble to correct, assuring the global community that only Iranian ports are being blockaded. Despite those corrections, Trump continued to make the assertion in a Truth Social from Saturday, writing that "our BLOCKADE has already closed it."

"The hour is growing very late," Kristol concluded. "Already the political damage is irreversible for Trump and his party: Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged Sunday that domestic average gas prices would likely not return below $3 a gallon until 2027. (Today gas is north of $4.)"

He continued: "And the simple fact causing it all—the same as it’s been all along—is that Trump, having chosen to kick the Iranian hornet’s nest, remains at a loss for what to do next. We’ve known he had no plan for months. But what’s becoming shockingly apparent now is how little he’s even paying attention to the problem."

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