President Donald Trump in the White House Oval Office on April 23, 2025 (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok/Flickr)
It's only been a few days since President Donald Trump confessed his "worst-case" scenario to the press while speaking to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Indeed, the worst case is happening, Fortune said at the start of Monday.
“I guess the worst case would be we do this, and then somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person, right? That could happen. We don’t want that to happen,” Trump said last Tuesday.
Now it appears Trump has little to show for his war with Iran other than a significant drop in the financial markets and a leader that is just as extreme as the one before. Trump indicated last week that he would have input in the leader chosen to run Iran. He didn't. Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the former supreme leader, has close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Among the challenges Trump is also facing include soaring gas prices. Oil is now about $100 per barrel, hitting $119 at one point Monday morning. Fuel is expected to go over $4. Low fuel prices have been a point of pride for Trump, along with his claim of "no new wars," and a pledge to focus on the Western Hemisphere.
Fortune indicated that "'Doomsday' now looking increasingly plausible, analysts say, as fresh attacks further threaten oil supplies."
That "doomsday" scenario is the long-feared Gulf oil squeeze, The Wall Street Journalreported Sunday evening. Oil tanker traffic has slowed considerably as U.S. and Israeli bombs have been hitting several countries around the Persian Gulf. The Gulf might seem wide, at 26 miles across, but it is so shallow in places that the large tanker ships can't travel there. It leaves a very narrow passage for the oil ships to navigate.
Then there's the larger problem involving the agricultural industry. Food prices are already high in the U.S. due to tariff costs. Transporting them in an expensive fuel environment will make things worse. But even if Trump's war ends quickly, the region is also a major source of fertilizers, which means further disruptions to the global production of fresh fruits and vegetables.
“In the whole written history of the strait, it has never been closed, ever,” explained JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva. “To me, it was not just the worst-case scenario. It was an unthinkable scenario.”
Trump promised that not only was everything fine, but high fuel prices were the price America would pay for "freedom," making it a kind of "freedom tax."
"ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!” he said on Truth Social.