Trump’s 'splintering coalition' will cause big losses for Republicans: analysis

U.S. President Donald Trump listens during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (not pictured) and European leaders amid negotiations to end the Russian war in Ukraine, at the White House (Reuters)

Americans are blaming President Donald Trump for high costs and that blame, reports Politico, is starting to shift politics, as the president continues to lose the affordability battle to Democrats.

According to a new Politico poll, 46 percent of Americans say the cost of living in the U.S. is "the worst they can ever remember it being, a view held by 37 percent of 2024 Trump voters."

That same 46 percent also say that the affordability crisis is Trump’s responsibility, saying it is his economy now and his administration is responsible for the high costs.

Politico says this is a huge warning to Republicans, as "some of the very groups that powered Trump’s victory last year are showing signs of breaking from that coalition, and it’s the high cost of living that’s driving them away."

The Democrats, they write, have seized upon this "growing vulnerability," as the focus on affordability led to their sweeps in the November elections as well as "an overperformance in a deep-red House seat in Tennessee on Tuesday."

GOP strategist Ford O’Connell says it's a warning sign, especially after Tuesday's Tennessee election in which Republican Matt Van Epps beat Democrat Aftyn Behn by 9 points, "but underperformed against Trump’s 22-point margin in 2024," Politico notes.

“This is a small warning, but it’s one that Republicans need to understand, is that to hold the House in 2026, it’s going to be an all-hands-on-deck effort,” O'Connell says.

The Politico poll "found that despite Trump’s continued support among the Republican base, his softest supporters — the ones the GOP most needs to hold onto next year — are expressing concern."

"Republicans were already worried about how they can turn out lower-propensity voters during a midterm cycle when Trump himself is not on the ballot. Now Democrats are also trying to peel away their voters by focusing aggressively on affordability, which remains a top priority for 56 percent of Americans," according to the poll.

Arizona-based Republican strategist Barrett Marson also agrees the GOP is in trouble, saying, "Republicans have long had the advantage on dealing with the economy, but if [it] remains in the doldrums and prices remain high, it’s harder to find a good job, they will blame the party in power, and that’s Republicans."

This trouble, Politico writes, presents "an emerging splintering in Trump’s 2024 winning coalition as his party heads into a high-stakes midterm fight."

Trump's weakness is especially seen among Republicans who do not identify as MAGA, Politico explains.

"His numbers are far weaker among those who say they voted for him, but do not identify as MAGA Republicans — 61 percent, compared to 88 percent of MAGA-aligned voters — pointing to a possible weak spot in his coalition," they note.

This poll, Politico notes, shows how the economy is the issue that will overshadow next year's elections, much to the dismay of Republicans.

"The poll underscores just how pervasive the affordability crisis cuts across Americans’ everyday lives," they say.

Marson says that even those who continued to blame President Joe Biden for Trump's faltering economy will move on from that narrative.

“Voters aren’t going to go, ‘I voted for Trump to better the economy, but Biden just hamstrung [him] too much,’” Marson says. “Voters are going to very quickly forget about Joe Biden and just as quickly turn their ire to Trump unless things get better.”

Republicans "who repeatedly hammered Biden over his handling of affordability concerns are increasingly concerned that Trump is taking a similar tact," Politico notes.

Michael Strain, the director of Economic Policy Studies at the historically conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute, agrees.

“It’s striking to see President Trump make the same mistake,” he says.

Democrats, meanwhile, are ramping up the message less than a year out from the midterms.

CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for the Democratic super PAC House Majority PAC, says "House Republicans should 100 percent expect to see ads next year calling them out for their broken promise to lower prices and for supporting Trump’s tariffs."

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