Women wearing MAGA hats attend the annual "March for Life" in Washington, D.C., January 23, 2026. REUTERS/Aaron Schwartz
Republicans are grappling with "startling" evidence that their most devoted MAGA voters are choosing to stay home, according to a report from Axios, with one party operative warning that they cannot "wish away" the trend.
Donald Trump has been hailed within the GOP for his remarkable ability to turn out infrequent voters, having built up a base that supports him more than the overall Republican Party. This trend is evident when comparing the turnout in his election years to that in midterms and off-year elections. Now, however, with Trump barred from seeking a third time, Axios on Tuesday reported that there is great "angst" in the GOP that they are about to have a major turnout problem with the next few elections, with evidence pointing to a resurgent Democratic base and increasingly "sleepy" MAGA voters.
"Republicans are getting crushed in scores of state and local races, raising deep concerns about a deflated base refusing to show up to vote even in the most pro-Trump areas," the report from Axios explained. "The numbers are startling. In race after race, Democrats are outpacing their 2024 performance by double digits, a clear sign of a yawning enthusiasm gap."
Across state and federal elections last year, Democratic candidates vastly overperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris's 2024 numbers, including by roughly 10 percent in the state races and nearly 14 percent in the races for the House and Senate. Meanwhile, according to the Tuesday report, the GOP's own internal polling suggests that past reports of waning Republican voter enthusiasm are accurate.
The opposing trends are most evident in two recent state elections, which saw Democrats pull off shock victories in districts that Trump dominated in 2024. Democrat Taylor Rehmet won a Texas state Senate seat by 14 points last month, in a district Trump carried by 17 points, a swing of over 30 points. More recently, Democrat Chasity Verret Martinez won a Louisiana state House seat by 24 points in a district Trump won by 13 points, in what Axios called a "landslide."
In light of their alarming internal polls on bruising losses like these in deep-red states, some in the GOP have attempted to write them off as flukes, the result of low-turnout local races without Trump on the ballot, which will not be reflective of bigger election cycles in 2026 and 2028.
"Let's not pretend a couple of low-turnout special elections suddenly signal a political earthquake," Mason Di Palma, communications director for the Republican State Leadership Committee, told Axios.
However, others in the party are warning that this trend cannot be ignored. They also argue that Trump's handling of issues like the economy and the Epstein files is actively decreasing his MAGA base's enthusiasm.
"While it is tempting for many in our party to wish away these results," an anonymous GOP operative told the outlet, "the pattern is clear that there is at least a current 10-point Democratic over-performance from Trump 2024 — and it's built on a fired-up Democratic base and a sleepy GOP base."