Trump’s win in Georgia’s primary exposed what may be his fatal flaw in the must-win state

13 March 2024

On Tuesday night, former President Donald Trump won the Georgia Republican presidential primary in commanding fashion. But despite garnering enough delegates to clinch the GOP nomination, Trump instead exposed a chink in his armor that President Joe Biden could exploit in the critical battleground state.

As the Daily Beast reported on Wednesday, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley won 77,000 Republican votes even though she has already dropped out of the race. While many Georgia Republicans voted early, approximately 22,000 of those votes came after she publicly announced the suspension of her presidential campaign. This could mean that there are thousands of GOP voters Biden may be able to peel away from his rival in November.

Biden's campaign may be able to focus their efforts to win over Haley supporters by simply hitting the ground in the Atlanta metropolitan area. The Beast reported that 40% of DeKalb County Republicans voted for Haley, along with 38% of GOP primary voters in Fulton County — the most populous in the Peach State.

In 2020, Biden narrowly won Georgia's 16 electoral votes by less than 12,000 total votes statewide, meaning that if the 2024 electorate is similar, Biden may be able to pull off another close victory by peeling away even just 20% of those 77,000 Haley voters. And even though Haley has not endorsed Biden, her supporters may be more prone to vote for Biden than Trump anyway based on recent polling.

An Emerson College poll released earlier this month showed that supporters of the former South Carolina governor are more than twice as likely to vote for Biden than for Trump. Moreover, Emerson found that GOP voters appear more dissatisfied with Trump in the current election cycle than in the previous one.

"Haley primary voters break for Biden in the general election, 63% to 27%, with 10% undecided," Emerson wrote. "In 2020 these voters broke for Biden 52% to 36%."

When she suspended her campaign, Haley notably said that Trump would have to "earn" the support of her base, suggesting that she wasn't in a hurry to endorse him. And so far, Trump has not made any significant efforts to court Haley's voters, bragging on Truth Social after she dropped out of the race that he "trounced" his last remaining opponent in the GOP primary.

Haley ended her campaign after the March 5 Super Tuesday primaries, in which 15 states and territories held their nominating contests. The only state Haley won was Vermont, bringing her delegate total to 89 after she notched another win in Washington, DC's primary. Her refusal to endorse Trump so far may be in hopes that her 89 delegates make a case for her at the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin this summer. And because Trump is due to in court for his first criminal trial in Manhattan later this month, it's possible the former president could be a convicted felon by the time the convention kicks off.

President Biden, in the meantime, has already made an entreaty to Haley supporters after she withdrew from the race. In a public statement, Biden praised the former UN ambassador's "courage" in standing up to the ex-president, saying she "was willing to speak the truth about Trump: about the chaos that always follows him, about his inability to see right from wrong, about his cowering before Vladimir Putin."

"Donald Trump made it clear he doesn't want Nikki Haley's supporters. I want to be clear: There is a place for them in my campaign," he continued. "I know there is a lot we won't agree on. But on the fundamental issues of preserving American democracy, on standing up for the rule of law, on treating each other with decency and dignity and respect, on preserving NATO and standing up to America's adversaries, I hope and believe we can find common ground."

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