Trump is losing his ability to influence the market as midterms loom

U.S. President Donald Trump gives a thumbs up while boarding Air Force One, as he departs for Israel, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., October 12, 2025. REUTERS Evelyn Hockstein

It's 102 days until the 2026 midterm elections, and President Donald Trump is having an increasingly difficult time managing the global oil markets that determine the price of fuel. And it's only growing worse as the war heats up in the Middle East again.

Politico reported on Friday that the oil problem isn't merely oil tankers making their way through the Strait of Hormuz. There are now three major shipping lanes that are falling under attack this week at a time that inventories are getting low.

Caspian Pipeline Consortium is owned in part by Chevron and Exxon Mobil, both U.S. oil companies. Its boats have been caught in the Black Sea as Ukraine works to stop Russian oil being sold to other countries.

Its spokesperson told Politico that oil shipments “are not being carried out.” And Kazakhstan denounced drone attacks as “destabilizing lawful international trade and global energy markets.”

In the Red Sea, Houthi allies in Yemen are targeting oil shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. As the report explained, "That route had seen increased traffic as Saudi Arabia diverted some of its Persian Gulf flows through a pipeline to its western port of Yanbu."

Oil shipments through there have increased five times what they were pre-Iran war. But this week the Houthis declared a blockade on Saudi exports through the strait there.

The U.S. oil stockpile in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve reached its lowest point this week since 1983. There were about 400 million barrels of oil at the start of 2026, KWCH reported. Now it's nearing 300 million in just a few months. The U.S. uses a little over 20 million barrels per day, reports explained.

Politico explained, there is "little hope of refilling them soon. And the temporary measures that have kept markets afloat since the war in Iran began, such as releases from nations’ petroleum reserves, are nearing their end."

Meanwhile, fuel prices jumped 15 cents on Thursday and is now over $4 a gallon again, according to AAA. That surge in prices has gotten no response from the president. In fact, recent reports said he's "bored" with Iran and wants to move on.

“Many Republicans thought [their chances of retaining control of Congress] had already hit rock bottom in the late spring and early summer, but now they’re finding that they can actually fall further,” political science fellow Mark Jones told Politico.

“The danger for Republicans is we’re now just a little over three months away from Election Day, and even if the conflict is resolved relatively soon, many consumers are not going to see those benefits before they cast the ballot in the November 2026 elections,” he added.

Trump has spent the past several months playing up solutions, ceasefires, deals and a memorandum of understanding, but what Trump once called an "excursion" that would only last "a few weeks" has turned into a full-blown war and oil crisis.

The White House has said that the point and purpose was to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon, but said last year that the U.S. already "obliterated" the country's nuclear program. On Thursday, the spokesperson said that oil and gas prices will “plummet back to pre-conflict levels” once the U.S. military stops Iran from harassing ships in the strait.

The White House believes that Trump is “committed to unleashing American energy dominance, cutting costs and putting more money back in the pockets."

In 18 months, Americans have seen the opposite as high fuel prices drive up transportation and shipping costs. That has increased the prices of groceries and goods.

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