CNN reporter Aaron Blake says that while President Donald Trump charges ahead with "unpopular and politically fraught" moves such as militarization of U.S. cities and tariffs, "nothing is more politically fraught right now as what's happening off the coast of South America."
"There are growing signs that Trump is flirting with regime change or even attacking Venezuela. And to the extent it’s more than a bluff, it’s not difficult to see the situation blowing up in the administration’s face," Blake says.
The signs of a "building clash," Blake says, include a Navy build-up in the Caribbean, the Air Force flying B-52 bombers off the Venezuelan coast Wednesday, and the Trump administration striking "alleged drug boats in quite possibly illegal ways."
The sudden resignation Thursday of Adm. Alvin Holsey, the admiral overseeing this U.S. Southern Command region, came over what the Pentagon denied as tensions over this administration's activities, along with Trump's authorization of covert CIA action in Venezuela leads Blake to believe that these actions are one of two things.
The first, he says, is a "trademark Trump pressure campaign to get Venezuela to bend to his will," and the second "appears to be largely about showing how powerful he can be."
But even if Trump is just duping Venezuela, Blake says it's a risky gambit: "Even if his saber-rattling is all intended as a bluff, at some point it’s conceivable that the president could be forced to follow through." He added that whatever happens, the American people are not likely to be behind the president if he does indeed act on those threats.
"While we don’t have good quality polling on the Venezuela situation specifically, other recent surveys have shown Americans taking a dim view of such foreign adventurism," he says.
Trump, he says, hasn't sold the American public on his South American plans — and they're not the only ones who reman skeptical.
"Trump has made the case that Venezuela has sent drugs and gangs to invade the United States, but so many of these claims have proven hyperbolic – and even been rejected by judges and his own intelligence community," Blake says.
Polls show Americans are wary of a wider war even if Trump makes his dubious case that going into Venezuela would be necessary to combat the flow of drugs.
"That’s essentially the proposition in Venezuela, with a little potential regime change sprinkled on top," Blake says. "If Trump really goes there, it will show he’s truly thrown political caution to the wind."