New analysis explains why Trump may be facing fundraising struggles despite his massive war chest

03 January 2023

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A new analysis is shedding light on the new dynamic of former President Donald Trump's fundraising as he kicks off his 2024 presidential bid.

In a piece published by The Guardian, Tom Perkins discussed the current scope of Trump's fundraising and how the massive war chest his political campaign has still may not be enough to place him at an advantage. "Donald Trump would seem poised to enter the Republican nomination race a step ahead: his Pacs and committees boast a war chest of about $95m, enough to give pause to the Republican candidates jockeying against him," Perkins wrote.

"But a scratch beneath the surface reveals a different reality," he added. "About $78m of the $95m cannot be directly used for Trump’s campaign, according to a Guardian analysis of the Trump fundraising web."

Perkins also noted another aspect of fundraising that appears to be hurting Trump's fundraising. The former president appears to be losing support from a multitude of voters.

From small-dollar donors to mega donors, many do not appear to be as eager to throw monetary support behind Trump this time around. "What’s more, there’s evidence the small-dollar donor stream that fueled his past runs is drying up," Perkins wrote. "Some high-profile mega-donors have fled."

Robert Maguire, a research director for the Washington-based Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics organization, also weighed in on Trump's fundraising challenges. “There are a lot of moving parts, but there are a lot of reasons to believe that Trump is struggling more than he has in recent years to raise money,” Maguire explained.

Although the Trump campaign's previous fundraising efforts led to monumental, record setting numbers, Perkins explained the notable decline in donations and how his efforts to overturn the election impacted his campaign's finances.

"Trump’s fundraising in recent years has raked in eye-popping sums. During the 2020 cycle he raised $882m, and another $500m since then," Perkins wrote. "But the savings have been depleted by Trump spending on his own legal defenses, on Melania Trump’s personal designer, and on helping the January 6 rioters."

Another issue is the controversy surrounding what is being described as "soft money."

Perkins wrote, "The most prolific entity over the current cycle has been the Save America leadership Pac, which raised about $111m and has about $21m left over post-midterm. But federal rules prohibit Trump from using leadership Pac funds for his campaign because leadership Pacs exist to support other candidates. It can, however, be used to support the large rallies that are a central campaign strategy."

Noting the concerns of multiple legal experts, Perkins included remarks from Saurav Ghosh.

“Therefore Trump violated federal law that prohibits that kind of soft money transfer,” said Ghosh. “Super Pacs are nominally independent of the candidate, but with Trump it is heavy-quotes ‘independent,’” Ghosh said. “Clearly when you have a Super Pac like this, which is organized by allies and folks who worked on prior Trump campaigns, the independence is illusory.”

Although Trump is still at a relatively early point in his 2024 presidential campaign, the signs suggest that he may be fighting an uphill battle to return to the White House.

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