Iowa toss-up: Trump policies are shaking the Republican grip on heartland

U.S. President Donald Trump waves as he boards Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, U.S., April 11, 2026. REUTERS Kevin Lamarque

President Donald Trump’s policies have hurt farmers so badly, Republicans are getting nervous that they could flip the state in both its Senate and gubernatorial elections.

“Well, number one, this is Iowa and the tariffs are hitting them really hard. Before the tariffs, Donald Trump had a 52 percent approval rating in the state — still not super great for Iowa — but he is currently at 42 percent,” The Bulwark’s conservative founder political expert Sarah Longwell wrote on Tuesday. “Farmers are losing money, even with the federal subsidies that are trying to offset the impact of the tariffs.”

She added that “soybean farmers are losing about $75 an acre. Trump's one big, beautiful bill kicked nearly 100,000 Iowans off their health insurance. And [Republican Gov. Kim] Reynolds is one of the most unpopular governors Iowa has seen in a while.” In addition to complaining that the school vouchers program requires students to go down to four days a week of schooling, many voters also believe that “the six-week abortion ban they enacted there in Iowa, which people think is too extreme. And then there's this issue of cancer water, which I had not heard about until I started focus grouping in Iowa — but essentially you've got a lot of chemicals going into the water, and a lot of people in Iowa say that they're experiencing incredibly high cancer rates.”

As a result of all these issues, “Cook Political Report currently rates this race as a toss-up. So that's interesting for Iowa — they've got a toss-up for governor. Democrats looking strong.” Reynolds is not running for reelection, but Democratic nominee State Auditor Rob Sand has focused on her unpopular record and is expected to tie his eventual Republican opponent to Reynolds’ governorship.

“Now let's move to the Senate,” Longwell wrote. “We also have an open Senate seat because [Sen.] Joni Ernst has decided not to run again. There's no Republican primary because Ashley Hinson, who is a sitting member of Congress — she's been there for three terms, she's a former state rep, and she was also a news anchor in the state — is the de facto Republican nominee. But the Democrats have kind of an interesting primary. There are two of them: Josh Turek, who I think is likely to win, and Zach Walls.”

She added, “Now, Josh Turek — if you don't know who he is or you haven't seen him — he's in a wheelchair. He has spina bifida, and his dad had exposure to Agent Orange in Vietnam. He's knocking on doors by pulling himself up step by step. He's also a four-time Paralympian and a two-time gold medalist.”

In April, The Economist/YouGov conducted a poll which found that farmers are overwhelmingly opposed to Trump’s tariffs and Iran war, as both policies have raised prices on farmers on important products like fertilizer and gasoline. Despite these concerns, farmers remain one of the most staunchly pro-Trump groups and refuse to abandon their support, instead hoping that he will provide them with economic relief.

“A recent Economist/YouGov poll suggests such troubles are now commonplace,” wrote The Economist on Monday, referring to farmers who struggle to make ends meet thanks to Trump’s policies. “27 percent of rural respondents said it would be ‘impossible’ to cover an unexpected $1,000 bill. It would be easy to blame Mr Trump for the downturn. After all, he campaigned on promises to bring down prices and revive the heartland. But rural America does not.”

The article continued, “The president’s favourability rating is higher among rural voters than among any other group in our survey. Most still think he is doing a good job. In interview after interview with The Economist, farmers said they trust the administration—but that they need help to recoup the losses its foreign policy is causing them.”

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