A single number threatens a bloodbath for the GOP

In American politics, the simplest explanation is probably the best. Why are some Republicans suddenly and conspicuously breaking from Donald Trump? Not just any Republicans, but ruby-red Republicans, in ruby-red states, in the span of days?

The answer is probably diesel.

The price reached $6 a gallon two Fridays ago for the first time. Since then, every new day has smashed the previous day's record. I checked this morning. AAA says the national average was $5.57 this time last month. Last week, it was $6.23. Today, it's $6.52.

Paul Krugman put it this way.

"Diesel is currently selling at more than $200 a barrel. It’s true that there is always a 'crack spread' between crude and diesel, but it’s typically on the order of $20. So the price of diesel is currently roughly what we would normally expect with crude at around $190."

So it's only Tuesday. At this rate, the average is going to reach $7 by the end of next week. (It's already there in Hawaii, according toNewsweek. Meanwhile, in California, it's almost $8.)

The US economy is complicated, but the extortionate price of diesel is getting people's attention, and not just any people – Trump's people. Middle-aged white working-class men who might otherwise be trusted to ride-or-die with him are rethinking their loyalty fast.

"This truck is gonna sit and rot now until this idiot president is out of office," said a Trump supporter in a video that went viral. "I voted for him and I'm so sorry I voted for him."

He added: "I never thought I would say this – I miss Joe Biden."

It's a large amount of pain being felt in a small amount of time, and the speed with which the Republicans have responded to it is pretty extraordinary. Just last month, the Republican National Committee warned GOP candidates against distancing themselves from Trump.

"[Trump] is the biggest turnout machine for mid- to low-propensity voters and we need those voters to get to the polls,” the RNC's Natalie Baldassarre toldPolitico in August. “If members are choosing to keep an arm’s length from the president, they risk alienating their base [and] they risk 15 to 20 percent of their key Republican voters not turning out.”

It's different now.

"We encourage candidates to run the races they need to run to best represent the voters," she toldPolitico Sunday. "The president understands when candidates need to add nuance."

How do we explain this heel-turn?

Diesel, probably.

Jackson Karki, a campaign staffer for the Republican who is running for the Senate in Michigan, did not cite diesel as the reason for his despair, but I bet he was thinking about it. Last Thursday, the fifth day in a row in which the price of diesel shattered records, he wrote:

"Very, very bleak."

He implied that the war was to blame after saying that "the vibes on the ground are the worst I’ve seen in my life. No one wants to promote candidates, no one wants to knock doors, no one wants to do s---. Attendance for any rightwing event is at all time lows anywhere I go. Thank you Donald Trump for ruining it for us ... and handing the country over to socialism."

He's not alone in blaming the president.

His boss, Mike Rogers, released an ad Monday implying the war is causing food costs to spike. "The war has to end and end quickly," he said. Rogers followed in Ashley Hinson's footsteps. She's the GOP Senate candidate in Iowa. Yesterday, she said, "Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran. We need to use every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices."

Rogers had previously supported the president's war. "Iran has waged war against the United States for 47 years," he said when the war began. "Iran is an imminent threat to our country and must not have a nuclear weapon." So did Hinson. In the Congress, she voted six times – including last week – against House resolutions that would have brought the war to an end.

What changed their minds? You guessed it.

Both focused on diesel.

Diesel holds a special place in American politics. Unlike gasoline, it reflects the interests of white working-class men perhaps better than any other indicator. These men and their livelihoods are woven into the fabric of the economy, in agriculture, transportation, construction, manufacturing, etc. They are not very online. They are not ideological (which is not to say apolitical). To the GOP, these men represent the great globular middle. When they get mad at hell, Republicans pay attention, because they believe they are "real Americans."

Everyone knows that when the price of diesel goes up, the price of everything goes up, especially the price of food. But I don't think Republicans would be running scared on account of food costs alone. Admittedly, I am guessing, but I don't think it's a coincidence that high-profile Republicans are distancing themselves from Trump as the price of diesel breaks new records every day. They are hearing very clear signals from priority factions within their coalition, signals that could suggest imminent collapse from the inside out.

I mean, even Byron Donalds, the Republican congressman who is running for governor in Florida, stripped references to Trump from his campaign website, after bragging about getting an endorsement from the president in the president's home state. The homepage used to ask supporters to "Chip in to Support Trump Endorsed Byron Donalds." No longer.

I don' think "affordability" did that.

Diesel did.

Though Republicans may want an end to the war, that may be out of Trump's hands, at least until the midterms are over. Iran is not only tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, thus throttling oil flows, it has widened the war to include US allies. The Iran-backed Houthi militia destroyed the east-west pipeline in Saudi Arabia. It was being used to bypass the strait. Moreover, Ukraine has been targeting diesel facilities in Russia. Reuters said Middle East diesel exports have been cut in half while diesel stocks in Europe have hit record lows.

You can see why "polls for Republicans are just getting worse by the day in a way that isn't actually all that common in midterms," Nate Silver said today. The pollster speculated that the reason might be gas prices or AI. But I think it's diesel. We may be approaching a tipping point, as we did during the pandemic, after which the crisis can no longer be contained.

Politically, for the Republicans, diesel could be to 2026 what covid was to 2020.

Only much, much worse.