Catholic support for Trump in free fall 'and shows no sign of slowing'

President Donald Trump's support among Catholic voters is developing a widening chasm as his 2024 campaign coalition falls apart.

According to the lifestyle magazine Rolling Out, Catholic support for Trump is in free fall "and shows no sign of slowing down." They, along with born-again Protestants, helped launch Trump to victory in the election, but now the born-again Protestants are growing in support while Catholics are abandoning Trump.

A Newsweek analysis compared a January poll to a July poll, showing that among born-again Protestants, Trump’s approval rose from 56 percent in January to 61 percent in July. But his support among Catholics dropped from 54 percent to 45 percent over the same period. The gap between the two has reached 30 percent.

"That is not a minor shift in polling. It reflects a meaningful realignment within communities that together represent a substantial share of the American electorate," write Shekari Philemon.

The largest decline happened between April and May of 2026, coinciding with the public clash between Trump and Pope Leo XIV. The two clashed over Leo's empathy for the plight of immigrants and refugees while Trump deployed more police to arrest them. Trump's opposition to the first American pope came at a time when most Americans were excited about him and viewed him in an overall positive way, the report recalled. Protestants hardly moved during that period (42 to 40 percent).

A May Public Religion Research Institute survey documented 56 percent of Americans viewed Leo favorably. At the same time, just 34 percent viewed Trump favorably.

In 2024, Catholics made up approximately 20 percent of the electorate and Trump carried them over Democrats by 12 percent. There is a divide between Latino Catholics, who largely backed Democratic candidates. The widening gap between the two faiths has only increased since the feud with the pope.

Catholic support further fell in June, as it reached 43 percent approval. Philemon explained that Trump's faith coalition isn't falling apart so much as it is under the strain of collapse.

White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said of Trump: "There has never been a greater president for Christian Americans than President Trump, and his strong record proves it." She added that Democrats "shamelessly weaponized the full weight of the federal government against people of faith."

While it certainly will have an impact in 2028, Newsweek explained that Catholic voters are "less reliably Republican than born-again Protestants." So, in November's midterm election, Republicans will need every piece of Trump's previous coalition to maintain power. Trump must make up nearly 10 points in less than 90 days among Catholics.