Trump's biggest fan faces humiliating defeat in deep-red district

President Donald Trump reacts on stage at the Republican National Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, September 9, 2026. REUTERS/Callaghan O'Hare

A Republican congressional candidate who says President Donald Trump can “control” him and wrote a ten-track album praising him is facing the prospect of a humiliating defeat in a deep-red district in a district the president won by 20 points just two years ago.

Anthony Constantino, the businessman endorsed by Trump and a candidate for New York's 21st Congressional District, is four points behind Blake Gendebien in a new poll, even though the district has a history of voting for Republicans.

The survey carried out by the Siena Research Institute and published on Friday shows that Gendebien, who is a dairy farmer, is ahead of Constantino with 46% to 42%. Independent candidate Christopher Schmidt got 5% support. Since the poll has a margin of error of 4.6 points, the race is still competitive.

The figures, however, are inconvenient for Constantino, since his devotion to Trump extends well beyond a normal campaign endorsement.

In a Mondayreport, The Bulwark’s Brendan Hartnett examined the Sticker Mule CEO’s devotion to Trump, including his eye-raising remarks about how the president can do with him as he pleases.

“Nobody can control me,” Constantino said during a January 2025 appearance on the Chrissie Mayr Live podcast. “We have a president who can control me.” He then added his fiancée and Roger Stone to the list of people he would follow.

In a different podcast in December 2024, Constantino described Trump as “the smartest person by far in the United States of America” and added that he would 100 percent back the president if he is elected.

He released a rap album titled Thank You, President Trump, and added a giant Vote for Trump sign at his company’s headquarters and styled himself as “the Trump of Upstate New York.”

Despite the Trump glazing, going all in on a president with the worst polling of his political career doesn’t appear to be working out well for him.

Scott Ferris, who is an independent voter, told the Times Union he opposed Constantino because of living costs. “I can’t afford that cost of living anymore,” linking the candidate's pledge to follow Trump’s lead as part of his reasoning.

In the New Siena poll, 39 percent of the voters who took part in the survey held a favorable view of Constantino, whereas 52 percent held an unfavorable view. Trump's job approval rating stood at 45%.

Most strikingly, among the same voters, Bruce Blakeman, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, was ahead of Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul by 15 points, and the respondents favored Republican control of Congress by five points.

The data show that voters who generally prefer Republicans are not becoming more favorable toward Constantino.

The campaign dismissed the survey, with spokesperson Alex DeGrasse describing it as "another scam poll" and maintaining that Constantino was winning the race.

At the same time, Gendebien addressed questions concerning affordability, health care and support for farmers and small businesses. They are running in the election on November 3 to take Elise Stefanik's place as a Republican representative who is retiring.

Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute, described a possible Democratic victory as “a major Democratic upset on Republican turf.”

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