And just as baseball is 90 per cent mental (the other half physical, according to malapropism icon Yogi Berra), trade wars aren’t purely economic. In only the past two weeks, the U.S. president has torpedoed a trade deal, threatened Canada’s economic and cultural sovereignty, called Canada’s leadership dishonest (and worse) and ordered a change to the name of a lake that’s older than America itself.
These sudden developments make the world seem dangerous and unpredictable. Yet while the Trump administration continues to attack science by cutting research funds and promoting Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s vaccine lies, it’s nonetheless science that helps us understand the unconscious motivations driving Trump’s erratic behaviour — and how to respond.
Why have other countries given in?
It’s important to delve into why only Canada and China have so far stood up to the Trump administration’s bullying.
Two principles can explain this seemingly irrational passivity.
The first is what’s known as loss aversion. Although the monetary value is the same, studies show that people fear losing a dollar more than they like gaining a dollar. Psychologically, losing something feels twice as painful as gaining the exact same thing.
The threatened loss of jobs becomes unacceptable, so countries settle for less punitive tariffs: although the current American administration is an unreliable partner in terms of trade deals, a 25 per cent tariff is bad while a 50 per cent one is worse.
If all of this seems chaotic, it’s by design. While I’m not suggesting the Trump administration is intentionally random in its attacks on allies like Canada and the European Union, unpredictability itself is a weapon — and a second reason so many countries have acquiesced to Trump’s demands.
Animals that are shocked randomly have higher stress hormone levels than those who learn to control the shocks. They give up and stop searching for ways to avoid pain.
Similarly, bullies exert power not through constant aggression, but rather the imminent threat of aggression. The unrelenting possibility of being economically shoved into a locker with punishing new tariffs keeps trading partners on edge and uncertain, further empowering the bully.
How should Canada respond?
So, what’s a nice middle-power democracy to do? Should Canada allow American liquor on the shelves? Or should it threaten to withhold energy and critical minerals? Game theory says neither.
In computer simulations, the tit-for-tat strategy and its slight variations beat more complicated strategies. Simply put, one starts with co-operation and responds in kind to the actions of the other party.
Peace begets peace and aggression is met quickly and at the same level. There is forgiveness and reciprocity. Tariffs are met with a same-value response.
In real life, Trump has threatened to escalate the conflict in January 2027 with further tariffs. In response, the message must be clear: Canada wants peace and will forgive past transgressions, but it will not tolerate future attacks.
The fallout
No matter the response, there will be pain, even if it’s less intense and for a shorter period of time than if a bad deal had been accepted.
While holding the line and encouraging Canadians to choose Canadian products, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government must also instil optimism in the domestic economy — and can leverage tribalism to do so.
We naturally categorize ourselves into groups with those who look and think like us. In fact, for all of Canada’s cultural and political diversity, many Canadians define themselves as “not Americans” and are united through indignation at the Trump administration’s behaviour.
Trump himself is wildly unpopular in Canada. There is a petition to remove his confrontational ambassador, Pete Hoekstra. Elbows Up and Never 51 are rallying cries.
Carney has been rightfully steadfast in his protection of Canada’s sovereignty; he enjoys high approval ratings and support for pausing trade talks with the Trump administration. Even politicians from other parties are pulling together to support the nation.
While there are lingering questions about who Canadians are, they are currently united by what they’re not; such unity strengthens Carney’s negotiating power.
More attacks to come
Given the longstanding pattern of Trump’s behaviour, Canada and other historical allies can continue to expect erratic and spiteful attacks.
As uncertain as this new world order is, science explains the effects of this aggression and how to respond to it.
And for those who need a break from political chaos, the Blue Jays are again racing towards the playoffs.
Eric Cadesky, Clinical Associate Professor, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.