On Monday, following a press conference in which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed the ramifications of President Donald Trump’s much-touted “Economic D-Day” approach to Iran, a leading war analyst delivered a grim assessment of what he heard: it was “a total fold by the USA.” This is according to distinguished professor of strategic studies Phillips O’Brien, whose bestselling book War and Power explores the historical basis upon which wars have been won and lost across time.
Just before Bessent took the podium, in which it was expected he would reveal the sanctions and other measures that would be involved in the administration’s plan for waging economic warfare against Iran, O’Brien had posted, “We are about to witness a fascinating moment. If the U.S. is serious about sanctioning those doing business with Iran, they will first and foremost have to hit China. If Bessent comes out and does not promise to go after China, it will be a total fold.”
But Bessent did not mention sanctions against China — an ally of Iran’s that has provided the country with weapons for its war against the U.S., and that many experts say has been the main beneficiary of the war. In fact, Bessent didn’t offer many specifics about who would be targeted with sanctions at all. While he asserted that the U.S. would “sever every economic lifeline” for Iran, his conference was short on details, and according to the New York Times, he even “acknowledged that it was more of a warning shot than anything as concrete as the invasion to liberate Europe during World War II.” As the Times noted, “It was not clear what the United States could do to further disrupt Iran’s flailing economy without inflaming tensions with China, the world’s largest buyer of Iranian oil.”
“For now we have our answer from Bessent's press conference,” O’Brien posted in its wake. “A total fold by the USA. They turned an economic D-Day against Iran into a sanction Little Bighorn for the USA.”
The Battle of the Little Bighorn – also known as Custer’s Last Stand – was an 1876 battle between U.S. and Native American forces that ended in a decisive loss on the part of the former. Led by General George Custer, the U.S. strategy going into the fight was famously plagued with errors.
The Trump administration’s strategy has been similarly error-prone, resulting in an intractable conflict that has repeatedly been called a “forever war.” Trump decided to launch the war under the assumption that the regime would fall immediately. Then when the conflict dragged on, Trump was unable to secure military support from allies he’d spent his entire term alienating. He miscalculated previously unknown limits on American military might and armaments, and has been forced to withdraw resources from other theaters to make up the losses, handing a major gift to Chinese ambitions in the West Pacific. But perhaps most disastrously, he ignored warnings that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz, which would be a catastrophe for the global economy – and has been.
“We are giving everyone the opportunity to remedy bad behavior,” Bessent told reporters during the conference. “Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?”
“Today's humiliation by the U.S. government in refusing to sanction China over its deep business dealings with Iran proves one golden rule,” noted O’Brien afterwards. “The Trump administration will only take action to hurt democratic allies, never dictatorships/authoritarians.”