Ex-GOP strategist predicts how much lower Trump’s approval will sink

U.S. President Donald Trump listens to remarks during a swearing-in ceremony for Mehmet Oz in the Oval Office in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 18, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard

President Donald Trump's approval ratings hit new lows in recent weeks, but as one former GOP leader and strategist explained, there are signs indicating just how much lower it can still go.

Mike Madrid is a former GOP strategist and political director for the California Republican Party. A critic of Trump's takeover of the party, he helped co-found The Lincoln Project advocacy group and continues to speak out against the MAGA movement in various media appearances.

This week, he appeared as a guest for the latest edition of the "Fast Politics" podcast with host Molly Jong-Fast, and discussed the incredibly unpopular moves Trump is making, including his trade war with Canada and real war with Iran, as the midterms are fast approaching. Based on the recent poll results from various sources, Jong-Fast argued that there is "no historical precedent for a president that's unpopular in modern [times]." When she pressed Madrid about whether he was closer to George W. Bush after Hurricane Katrina or Richard Nixon just before his resignation, he agreed that "there aren't really historical parallels" for Trump's unpopularity.

Madrid further explained why the situation heading into the midterms continues to favor Democrats, based on the kinds of elections they have come to thrive in.

"Republicans, by their constitution now, are the beneficiaries of high turnout elections because their base has gotten less educated, less informed on issues, and less engaged, lower propensity, as we call them, in the trade," he explained. "Democrats have been winning these lower-turnout elections, which are midterms, and doing better, outperforming because their coalition has become more college-educated, more informed, and more, frankly, more rabid at the idea of getting rid of Donald Trump and the Republicans. So, it begins structurally advantaging Democrats, but then you add on the fact that literally nothing is going well for Trump and the Republicans."

Madrid noted that the poor environment for Republicans can be seen in the fact that Trump appears not to have over a 50 percent approval rating on any issue, giving them little to fall back on with voters. He also stressed the significance of the fact that the number of "people who believe the country is heading in the right direction is sitting at about 24, 25 [percent]."

"So there's a big gap between how people feel [about] what the country is doing, and who he is," Madrid said. "That's an even bigger warning sign, which means there's more floor to drop out as opposed to ceiling to rise."

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