President Donald Trump is set to campaign across the country to promote his economic record, but MS NOW commentator John Heilemann predicts that Republican lawmakers facing reelection in 2026 will want to keep their distance.
Speaking on “Morning Joe,” Heilemann said GOP members are starting to realize they are no longer rowing in the same direction as the president.
"It feels like that moment began because ... the events of just the last 24 hours suggest how much Republicans are now, feeling like they must decouple themselves from Donald Trump," said Heilemann. "Because the election next year — Donald Trump's name won't be on the ballot, but the Donald Trump economy is going to be on the ballot. And we know, midterm elections are nationalized elections now. It's not really about any individual House member so much as we've seen these waves in these off-year and midterm elections over the course of the last decade or so."
He spoke specifically about elections in 2017, 2018 and 2019 when the GOP years were so horrible.
"Now we see them again in 2025. I mean, the years when the Republican Party is tied to Donald Trump's policies but Donald Trump is not, himself, on the ballot, has never gone well for Republicans," continued Heilemann. "His policies have never, in those periods of time, been popular."
He specifically recalled the 2018 election when Trump tried to make it about "caravans" of people coming to the border. "And they got wiped out in this blue wave."
This most recent off-year election in 2025 was far worse for Republicans than it was in 2017, Heilemann continued.
"And when you heard Susie Wiles earlier this week say, Trump's going to be in all their districts. He's going to be out there on the campaign trail. Everything you hear from Republicans on The Hill, when they're being honest, off the record, is 'I'm not sure I want him in my district.' Right now, with 31% on the economy, as is his approval rating and the kinds of performances he's giving, if that performance in Pennsylvania is indicative, there are probably a lot of people who are going to be very hesitant to say it out loud, but they're never going to let Donald Trump in their districts.