Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during a rally in San Antonio, Texas, U.S., May 29, 2026. REUTERS/Joel Angel Juarez
The country has been captivated by the Texas U.S. Senate race all year after President Donald Trump picked Attorney General Ken Paxton to be the GOP nominee to run against Rep. James Talarico (D). Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) tried to warn the party that Paxton wasn't the right candidate and wouldn't focus on campaigning the way he would. The GOP feared it would be Paxton's undoing.
After a tight battle, The Hill declared James Talarico was the likely winner.
No Senate race in U.S. history has spent more than the Texas 2026 Senate race. Billionaire Elon Musk has donated roughly $200 million to help get Ken Paxton elected as of the Oct. 15 filing deadline. Trump's MAGA Inc. has spent significantly less. In September, he spent $10 million on the race and by Oct. 8 they'd spent about $22 million. As of the end of October, the AdImpact figures calculate about $36 million total from Trump's political action committee.
Meanwhile, the Republican Party has spent a small fortune defending Paxton. As of Oct. 21, Republican-aligned outside groups had spent about $239 million helping Paxton or opposing Talarico, according to Reuters. Texas PAC, the group established by the Senate Leadership Fund, accounted for nearly $149 million.
With 14 days until the Nov. 3 election, the National Republican Senatorial Committee took out $20 million in loans despite boasting a large cash advantage over Democrats, Politico reported.
The problem, according to former Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan, a Republican, was that the ads never moved the needle in the polls. He warned that fellow Republicans were "freaking out." Some evidence suggests Paxton has narrowed the gap, but it hasn't been enough to shift the race from a toss-up to leaning in Paxton's favor. It did help him stop falling behind.
Texas Senate polls showed a narrow Talarico advantage up until the end, but the race remained close. As of October 25, polling averages put Democrat James Talarico roughly 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points ahead of Paxton, while several individual surveys show a tie.
For his part, Paxton has already assumed he lost, telling a group of donors that Washington took over his campaign and he has no say in what's happening anymore. He also complained that his campaign needed money, even begging Fox News viewers to help. According to him, Talarico's spending advantage was hurting his campaign. But Talarico was being outspent by at least 2.5 to 1.
The issues have been unusual. While Talarico focused on the affordability crisis, the Iran war, wages and housing, Paxton campaigned on the idea that his opponent wasn't manly enough and was even a vegan.
Meanwhile, right-wing activists suffered a huge humiliation when Talarico disappeared for nearly two weeks with the flu. They claimed that he couldn't handle the pressure and was held in an Ohio mental health facility. Right-wing news spread the report like wildfire with an edited recording of a woman working at the facility who said that unless he left "today" there was no one there by that name. The facility ultimately had to debunk the claim. It made Republicans look desperate and silly.