Swing district GOP rep’s reelection in doubt after George Santos announces independent run

Rep. Nick LaLota (R-New York) was already facing an uphill battle in his bid for a second term in New York's 1st Congressional District, given his narrow 2022 victory and the fact that he'll be running under redrawn boundaries. But an 11th hour announcement from former Rep. George Santos (R-New York) may further complicate LaLota's reelection math.

On Friday, Santos posted a statement to X (formerly Twitter) that he would be filing paperwork to run for the 1st Congressional District as an independent, and that he no longer considered himself a Republican.

"The Republican Party continues to lie and swindle its voter base. I in good conscience cannot affiliate myself with a party that stands for nothing and falls for everything," Santos tweeted. "I will take my Ultra MAGA/Trump supporting values to the ballot in November as an Independent."

READ MORE: 'Bye George!' Social media reacts to 'unfit to serve' George Santos' expulsion from Congress

"@nicklalota and @JohnAvlon ill see you boys in November!" Santos wrote, adding a kissing-face emoji.

With a far-right former Republican on the ballot alongside LaLota, it's entirely possible that likely Democratic nominee John Avlon could emerge from a three-way race with a plurality of votes in November, which would hand Democrats a needed flip in order to retake the House majority. In 2022, LaLota defeated Democratic nominee Bridget Fleming — who was also on the Working Families Party ballot line — by roughly 30,000 votes according to Ballotpedia. If Santos peels away a five-digit sum of votes on election day, that could be enough to give Democrats the advantage.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) will need numerous close calls to go Republicans' way in November if he hopes to keep the gavel in 2025. This includes swing districts like LaLota's in New York, which helped Republicans gain a narrow edge in the 2022 midterm elections to put former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-California) on the dais. And after Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-New York) won his special election against Republican Mazi Pilip in February to fill the seat vacated after Santos' expulsion, Johnson's hopes became shakier.

A wave of retirements and early departures from the House Republican Conference has also not helped Johnson's goal of holding his majority together. On Friday, Rep. Mike Gallagher announced he would be leaving the House of Representatives on April 19, and Rep. Ken Buck's (R-Colorado) will be departing the House officially this weekend. This means that Johnson can now only afford one defection from his caucus in order to pass legislation.

READ MORE: Mike Johnson's House majority suffers crippling blow after GOP rep announces April exit

Santos was expelled after a House Ethics Committee report in late 2023 found that he improperly used donors' campaign contributions on frivolous expenditures like designer handbags and online adult content subscriptions. The report also unearthed Santos' ties to a billionaire lawyer in Florida who almost singlehandedly kept his campaign afloat.

Even if he wins his long-shot independent candidacy for Congress, Santos may not be in office very long. In October, he was indicted by the Department of Justice on multiple felony charges including conspiracy, wire fraud, false statements, falsification of records, aggravated identity theft and credit card fraud.

READ MORE: Ethics Committee: Santos kept afloat by secret 'straw donor' scheme set up by billionaire