'The speaker has to be very careful': GOP’s House majority is the smallest of 21st century

13 March 2024

House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-Louisiana) grip on the gavel appears to be slipping with each passing day amid unrelenting retirement and resignation announcements by members of his caucus. And a new analysis shows just how fragile his majority has become.

The Washington Post recently published an infographic showing that the 2023-2024 House Republican majority is the smallest of the 21st century. Republicans haven't had such a narrow lead since 2001, when they enjoyed a 10-seat advantage over Democrats. As of March 12, there were just six more Republicans than Democrats in the House of Representatives. And after Friday, March 22, when Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colorado) will officially leave the House, the GOP's advantage will dwindle down to five.

"The speaker has to be very careful," Smith College government professor Claire Leavitt told the Post. "Republicans have to make sure they all actually show up for votes."

Assuming full attendance, Johnson will only be able to afford two defections from the House Republican Conference after Buck's exit becomes official if he hopes to pass legislation without Democratic support. But that could be easier said than done — the Post reported that since the start of the 2023-2024 session of Congress, at least one member has been absent for 99.8% of all votes on the House floor. Absences can be due to anything from delayed flights, illness, family matters and anything in between.

Johnson learned that lesson the hard way after his first attempt to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. That vote proved unsuccessful, as House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) missed the roll call due to illness. The second vote succeeded by just one vote, as several Republicans — including Buck – voted with Democrats to not impeach Mayorkas.

Moreover, Johnson's control over his caucus appears to have waned considerably since he was elected to the speakership via unanimous vote in October. The speaker's last few votes to keep the government funded until the next deadline to avoid a federal shutdown had more Democratic votes than Republican votes. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-California) was notably removed from his position for working with his Democratic counterparts to raise the debt ceiling and keep the US from defaulting.

George Washington University political scientist Sarah Binder told the Post that Johnson can't afford to run afoul of the far-right bloc of Republicans that led McCarthy's ouster given his already paper-thin majority.

"[Absences are] heightened in this period of slim majorities with such polarized parties," Binder said. "Small majorities can be successful in the House, but this one is racked by this faction. And it's very organized."

McCarthy became the first speaker to lose the gavel via a vote from his own party last year, throwing the House GOP into weeks of chaos as they battled amongst each other to elect their next speaker. Johnson was only elected after failed bids by Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Tom Emmer (R-Minnesota) and Scalise. But so far, the far-right House Freedom Caucus has stood by Johnson, and the caucus' members have so far kept silent when asked if they plan to do to Johnson what some of their members did to McCarthy.

Whether Johnson keeps the gavel or loses it to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) may depend on how several freshman Republicans from New York fare in November. The Empire State's voters will be divided into new congressional district maps by the time of the election, as New York's redistricting commission is currently finalizing maps to be used in 2024, pending approval from the state legislature. Reps. Anthony D'Esposito (R-New York), Mike Lawler (R-New York) and Nick LaLota (R-New York) would all need to hold on to their seats if Republicans hope to stay in the majority after November. And after Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-New York) won a February special election to replace expelled former Rep. George Santos (R-New York), that may be a tall order.

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