Fox News says South Carolina Senate seat is no longer 'solid Republican'

Reports say President Donald Trump spent $5 million on ads supporting U.S. Senate candidate Darline Graham hours before Fox News announced it was shifting the South Carolina race from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican."

Graham has had several very public missteps, particularly during her primary debate against Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.).

While the Fox News network leans heavily to the right, political experts generally consider Fox polling to be reliable. It's all the more shocking that both the network and the Republicans see a shift happening. The Republicans clearly saw enough movement in the polls to do a last-minute infusion of cash for the GOP candidate.

Graham, the late Senator's sister, saw rough polling throughout the summer, but as of early September she's seen more and more support turn in her direction.

With 28 days until the election, Fox said they still see an 11-point advantage for Democratic candidates on the generic ballot.

According to Fox, doubts about Graham remain enough to shift the polling.

"There are lingering questions about Graham’s ability to turn out a broad spectrum of Republican voters against a Democratic candidate who, like her counterparts in Kansas and Nebraska, is pushing hard on the price of diesel," the report said. It was enough for Fox News to see that she'll likely win, but they have less assurance than previously.

Trump has already appeared in the state once to beg his supporters to come out for Graham. Axios reported Tuesday morning that he's also thrown an extra $5 million her way.

Meanwhile, the same poll shows Trump is down 23 points in approval. It puts him at 38 percent, slightly better than it has been over the summer.

Fox now sees a longer list of states that "could surprise Republicans" than those that could "surprise Democrats." The results show that there are possibilities of upsets in Arkansas, Florida, Ohio, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Carolina and South Dakota.

In Arkansas, Vice President JD Vance sent a letter supporting Sen. Tom Cotton (R), warning that Democrats would invest millions in the race and that their votes were desperately needed. Cotton has outspent his Democratic opponent 65 to 1. That said, in 2020, when Cotton was up for reelection, he spent less than $1 million. Now he has thrown $13.6 million to ensure he makes it through November.

An August poll by Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll of 1,217 likely voters showed Cotton at 44 percent while his Democratic challenger, Hallie Shoffner, was at 47.4 percent. A Libertarian in the race may be hurting Cotton. He holds nearly 3 percent of the voters. Only 5.65 percent remain undecided.

The problem is that Trump is now in a very public feud with Cotton over daylight saving time. Over the weekend Trump raged that people should call Cotton's personal cell phone to lobby him into passing the Sunshine Protection Act of 2026.

Republicans did their own polling in September showing Cotton with a larger lead over Shoffner than the Talk Business numbers. However, enthusiasm may help the Second Congressional District, where Democrats think they may have a chance.

The Fox numbers also show that while Democrats appear to be ahead in several races, it's within the margin of error. States like Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas are close enough that Election Day turnout will likely decide whether Democrats can win in those states or not.