'Only downhill from here': Former GOP senator predicts big midterm losses for Republicans

01 July

President Donald Trump in the White House Oval Office on February 10, 2025 (Official White House photo by Daniel Torok/Flickr)

The Republican-controlled U.S. Senate's recent passage of President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" may have sealed the GOP's fate in next year's elections, according to one former Senate Republican.

In a Tuesday article, the New York Times' Tyler Pager reported that the legislation is yet another opportunity for Trump to demonstrate his hold on the Republican Party, having already cowed opposition from within the GOP's ranks toward his most controversial Cabinet nominees. But former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) — who retired from the Senate during Trump's first term and eventually joined former President Joe Biden's administration — said that Republicans' chances of maintaining their majorities in both chambers of Congress will be much slimmer should Trump's signature domestic policy push become law.

"The president, his powers are at their zenith right now,” Flake told the Times. “But it’s only downhill from here, and then you’ve got the voters to contend with. And that’s different depending on what state or district you’re in.”

"If you’re just worried about re-election, that’s something I would certainly consider before I voted for this bill," he continued.

After passing the Senate with a tie-breaking vote from Vice President JD Vance, the bill now awaits a final vote in the House of Representatives before it can go to Trump's desk. However, if the House makes any changes, it will need to undergo another round of voting in the Senate. And there are reportedly at least 20 Republicans who are against the Senate's version of the bill.

Trump has threatened members of the House of Representatives who vote against the bill — like Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) — with primary challenges should they vote against passing the Senate version verbatim. And Republican strategist Alex Conant said that any Trump-endorsed primary challenger could pose a significant obstacle to any Republican incumbent fighting for another term.

"Most House members wake up worried about a primary challenge, and they know that if Trump endorses them, they will almost certainly win and be re-elected," Conant said. "That gives Trump tremendous power. A House member could vote against this bill, but that means they will probably lose their primary. Not a lot of members want to do that."

Click here to read Pager's full New York Times article (subscription required).

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