Control of the Senate will likely come down to this deep-red state

10 September 2024

Regardless of whether Democrats keep the White House or Republicans retake the presidency, their ability to actually pass their agenda through Congress will depend on which party controls the U.S. Senate. And right now, both parties are going all-in on a state former President Donald Trump easily won in both 2016 and 2020.

According to Semafor, Sen. Jon Tester (D-Montana) is in the midst of the most heated Senate contest in the country, and millions of dollars are being spent both on his behalf and against him. While Tester is the sole remaining Democrat holding any statewide office in the Big Sky State, he's fended off well-funded Republican challengers in both 2012 and 2018, despite Montana voting for Republican presidential candidates in every election dating back to 1996.

Because outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin's (I-West Virginia) seat is almost certain to flip in November given that West Virginia is a deep-red Republican stronghold, Tester's reelection will likely be a must if Democrats hope to prevent the GOP from taking the upper chamber of Congress.

However, this will be a heavy lift given that Tester is currently lagging behind Republican Tim Sheehy in the latest polls. The three-term incumbent is likely going to have to peel away a significant number of Trump supporters if he hopes to win another six years in the Senate, given that Trump won the Big Sky State by 20 points in 2016 and by nearly 17 points in 2020.

Tester is, however, leading his opponent in fundraising. Campaign finance data from OpenSecrets shows that the Montana Democrat has raised $42 million this cycle and has $10 million in cash on hand, while Sheehy has raised just $13 million and has a little over $3 million on hand through November. This could prove decisive in the final months of the election when campaigns are paying for TV ads, digital advertising, direct mail campaigns and field outreach.

Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Illinois) told Semator that the fact that his colleague has so much pressure to win "breaks my heart," but that "’ve still got my fingers crossed he’s going to pull it out."

"[Keeping the majority] starts with the incumbents in winning those races," Durbin said of Democrats running for reelection in red states. "Nobody is giving up on him."

Outside of Montana, both parties are spending significant sums in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who chairs the Senate Banking Committee, is running in a tight race with Republican Bernie Moreno — a businessman who has never once held elected office. Brown has made abortion rights a centerpiece of his reelection campaign. This could prove effective, given that Ohioans voted to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitution last year despite the Buckeye State voting for Trump in the last two presidential elections.

Elsewhere, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona) is battling failed 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake for Arizona's open U.S. Senate seat, which Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Arizona) previously held before announcing her retirement. Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pennsylvania) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin) are also running expensive reelection races of their own against Republicans Dave McCormick and Eric Hovde, respectively. Both are similar to Sheehy and Moreno in that they are wealthy entrepreneurs who are bankrolling their campaigns with significant sums of their own money.

Click here to read Semafor's full article.

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