Mondovi, WI USA September 28, 2020 Farmer John with his John Deere 3020 tractor holding out a Trump banner and also an American flag on the tractor.
Things are not going well in red America — and voters are starting to turn on MAGA as their communities falter.
Rural America was already suffering under the weight of school consolidation, hospital closures and drought, all of which caused huge problems, and that was before data centers began moving in.
Jennifer Rubin, writer for "The Contrarian," looked first at Democrat Brandon Duke, who won a narrow victory in the Pennsylvania 12th state Assembly seat. The last time the district had a Democrat was in the 1990s. Trump won the district in 2024 by 18 points.
Rubin cited a report from The Pennsylvania Capital Star that issued a warning as the midterm nears: "Pennsylvanians across the political spectrum are sick and tired of Republicans’ chaotic, corrupt and cost-raising agenda — and they’re ready to reject them at the polls and elect Democrats up and down the ballot in historic fashion."
Duke is part of a larger trend. Democrats have flipped 31 legislative seats in special elections since January 2025, won major statewide races in New Jersey and Virginia and posted a turnout advantage in Texas’s 2026 primaries.
Impacting rural America the most was the GOP's "One, Big, Beautiful Bill," which issued huge cuts to Medicare and Medicaid as well as SNAP and renewable energy initiatives.
The result has been a number of hospital closures in areas of the country that already have very little access to medical care. Trump's trade war hit family farms that were barely holding on before the tariffs. Then came the drought. As of August 18, 44.34 percent of the U.S. and Puerto Rico, and 52.70 percent of the Lower 48 states were in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. When a hospital closes or a farm loses income, local jobs, schools, stores and tax bases are hit too.
SNAP helps farmers by putting food-purchasing money into local economies. More customers mean more sales. In fiscal year 2023, nearly 7,000 farmers’ markets and farmers able to accept SNAP generated about $71 million in food and produce sales through 2.7 million EBT transactions, reported BREAD For the World.
Pennsylvania is just three state Senate seats away from a Democratic majority. Traditionally red parts of Wisconsin are turning too. In Wisconsin's 3rd, Rebecca Cooke is trying to unseat Trump loyalist Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wisc.). Citing the New Tribune, Rubin pointed out just how bad Van Orden's loyalty to Trump has hurt him.
“Van Orden also voted against rescinding some of Trump’s controversial tariffs. The administration’s tariff policies have stalled purchases of U.S. agricultural products, including by China, a major consumer of goods such as soybeans, which are widely grown in the district," the report said.
Texas is in play for the U.S. Senate, and seats in North Carolina and Ohio also look likely to flip to add Democrats to the chamber. Even in Iowa and Alaska, Democratic candidates are running even with their GOP opponents.
"Trump can insult voters by claiming affordability is a hoax, but rural voters, be they in Iowa, Texas, Wisconsin or any other state, know that diesel and fertilizer prices have soared (thanks to Trump’s illegal, reckless war, which has jammed up transportation through the Strait of Hormuz); rural hospitals are closing and tariffs have decimated farm sales," wrote Rubin.
She closed by saying that Republican candidates are trotting out all of their typical social issues, like saying LGBTQ people are coming for children and saying the word "socialism" as many times as possible. These "last-gasp tactics are unlikely to forestall massive Republican losses not just in traditional swing races but in states and districts that were safely Republican just two years ago."
She warned Democrats not to take things for granted. In a race, always run as if you're losing. With 71 days left, Rubin said that these red enclaves could be what propels the pro-democracy forces forward.