'Real potential blunder': How RFK Jr’s campaign is 'now evidently hurting Trump'

08 August 2024

Editor's note: This article has been updated to include an additional quote from Aaron Blake's analysis.

Throughout the 2024 campaign cycle, the candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was thought to be beneficial to former President Donald Trump by siphoning support from the Democratic ticket. But an analysis of new polls suggests otherwise.

The Washington Post's Aaron Blake found that, since President Joe Biden left the race in late July, RFK Jr. has been dragging down the Republican ticket. He's not only been sliding in the polls, but his continued presence on the ballot may in fact be more detrimental to the Trump campaign than to Vice President Kamala Harris' candidacy.

Initially, the scion of the beloved Kennedy family — legendary in Democratic Party politics — appeared to be cutting into the Democratic base given both his name recognition and his significant financial resources. Now, Blake writes that the most recent data shows the nephew of the late former President John F. Kennedy "is now evidently hurting Trump" by staying in the 2024 race.

Blake based his argument on a Wednesday poll of American voters from Marquette University. That survey shows the vice president ahead of Trump by a 53-47 margin, with that lead stretching to eight percentage points after lumping in third-party contenders like RFK Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West, among others.

"Kennedy takes just 3 percent of both Democrats and Republicans in the poll, while taking 13 percent of independents," Blake wrote. "But the independents he takes come at Trump’s expense: Kennedy wins 8 percent of Democratic-leaning independents, compared with 23 percent of Republican-leaning independents."

"If you lump Democratic-leaning independents in with Democrats and Republican-leaning independents in with Republicans, Harris loses just five points from her base in a crowded field (dropping from 95 percent to 90 percent), while Trump loses eight points from his (dropping from 94 percent to 86 percent)," he added. "The initial elevation of Kennedy’s campaign on the right ... is now looking even more like a real potential blunder."

According to Blake, these numbers suggest RFK Jr. is no longer a useful wedge to divide Democratic voters, but is instead a liability to the Trump campaign. Trump may be aware of this, as he attacked the independent candidate in a Truth Social post earlier this year warning that any ballot cast for RFK Jr. would be a "wasted protest vote."

"His Views on Vaccines are FAKE, as is everything else about his Candidacy," Trump said in reference to RFK Jr's anti-vaccine crusade. "Let the Democrats have RFK Jr. They deserve him!"

While Trump publicly railed against Kennedy's debunked views on childhood vaccines, he privately expressed agreement with him in footage of a phone call he had with the independent candidate in July. The former president also urged Kennedy to endorse him — something Kennedy notably declined to refuse on the call.

“I would love you to do so,” Trump said, “And I think it’ll be so good for you and so big for you."

Click here to read the Post's analysis in full (subscription required).

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