Democrats led by 9.1 points in my September 25 article. They remain clear favourites to gain control of the Senate and overwhelming favourites in the House of Representatives.
However, Donald Trump’s net approval has recovered from a low of -23.5 last Friday to -22.5.
If disruption caused by the Iran war continues until the midterm elections, with increased petrol prices and inflation, Republicans are likely to lose control of both the House and the Senate, perhaps with huge losses.
However, if the disruption eases again and petrol prices fall back before the midterms, I believe Republicans will do better than they are polling now, and may retain control of the Senate.
I say this because Trump’s net approval and the generic ballot were better for Republicans in early September, soon after a low in petrol prices.
Trump’s ratings
In Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -22.5. Currently, 59.9% disapprove of his performance and 37.5% approve.
Trump’s net approval was -23.0 in my September 25 article. It had improved to -18.7 on September 4 before falling back.
Trump’s net approval is below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, with Trump’s first term the closest at -10.5.
On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -12.7 on immigration, -28.1 on trade, -32.8 on the economy and -48.5 on inflation. Since my September 25 article, Trump’s net approval on inflation has dropped two points.
Silver also has an aggregate of US support for the Iran war. Currently, 60.0% are opposed to the Iran war while 32.1% support it, for a net support of -27.9, down from -24.4 in my September 25 article. That’s the worst net support since the war began.
Midterm elections on November 3
All 435 federal House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 senators will be up for election at November 3 midterm elections.
In 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220–215 over Democrats and the Senate by 53–47. Owing to Vice President JD Vance’s potential tie-breaking vote, Democrats need at least a four-seat gain to win Senate control.
As I previously wrote, owing to Republican gerrymandering, Democrats need at least a four-point margin in the generic ballot to have a good chance to win the House majority. The Senate is more skewed to Republicans as every state has two senators. Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win the Senate on a uniform swing.
In Silver’s midterm election forecast model, the generic ballot gives Democrats a 51.3–41.6 lead over Republicans, a 9.6-point margin (9.1 points in my September 25 article). Democrats’ lead had dropped to 7.4 points on September 4.
Polls that screen for likely voters usually give Democrats larger leads than polls that ask registered voters. Democrats are more likely to vote at lower turnout elections like the midterms than Republicans, when Trump is not on the ballot.
Silver’s model gives Democrats a 74% chance to win the Senate and a 93% chance to win the House, respectively 69% and 91% on September 14. Democratic chances to win the Senate had fallen to a low of 50% on September 7, and their chances of winning the House had dropped to 81% on September 3.
While uniform swing indicates that Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win control of the Senate, Silver’s model has Democrats as the favourites to win with a 6–7 point margin in the generic ballot. In the House, Democrats are favourites if they win by 3–4 points.
Democrats lead Republicans by one to five points in Senate contests for five states Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024: Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Iowa and Kansas. This is why Democrats are the favourites to gain control of the Senate.
The two key items that could go wrong for Democrats are a markedly improved economy by November for most Americans – not just the stock market – and a systematic error in which Republicans overperform the polls.
Economic data
Americans are currently paying an average of US$4.36 a gallon for regular petrol (gasoline in the US), down from US$4.48 a gallon in my September 25 article. Owing to profits and taxes, the retail price of petrol will be higher than the commodity price.
The commodity price of petrol had surged from a low of US$2.99 a gallon on August 27 to US$3.59 on September 23, then fell to $3.13 on September 29 before rising again to its current US$3.32.
In Silver’s models, Trump and Republicans were at a high in early September, shortly after the August 27 low point in petrol prices.
The September jobs report (released last Friday) will be the last before the midterms. In the establishment survey, 29,000 jobs were added, but there were downward revisions for July and August that subtracted 60,000 jobs, causing July to be revised from 21,000 gains to 10,000 losses.
In the household survey, the unemployment rate rose 0.1% since August to 4.2%. However, this was because of an increase in participation. The employment population ratio (the percentage of eligible Americans who are employed) rose 0.1% to 59.2%, and is up 0.3% since a July low. In Australia, the employment population ratio was 63.9% in August.
In the last four trading sessions, the benchmark US S&P stock market index has surged 2.2% to be at a new record high. It’s up 12.6% from its peak in the week before the Iran war began in late February and up 18.6% from its worst point in the Iran war in late March.
In August, disposable personal income increased 0,3%, while expenditure increased 0.9%. Since February, expenditure has exceeded income except in July. The personal savings rate has fallen 1.5 points since January to 4.1%, its lowest since November 2022.
The savings rate has been upwardly revised. In my September 14 article, I reported the savings rate was 3.0% in July, but this is now 4.6%.
Flávio Bolsonaro likely to win Brazilian presidency
I covered Sunday’s first round of the Brazilian presidential election for The Poll Bludger. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, defeated Workers’ Party incumbent Lula by 47.0–45.2. Bolsonaro is likely to win the October 25 runoff election.
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.