Experts confirm 'blowout' getting more likely for the GOP

Senate Majority Leader John Thune pushes his glasses up as he speaks to reporters outside his office on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., October 14, 2025. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

Momentum is not on the GOP's side with less than two months left until the midterms, with an expert panel reconvened by the New York Times confirming that their odds of success are even worse now than over the summer, with one predicting a "2018-ish blowout."

On Monday, the Times published a new piece compiling takes on the midterm outlook from a panel of "six polling and politics experts," the same group that they spoke with for a similar report back in July. A few months back, most of the experts did not give Democrats any sort of edge in taking back the Senate, predicting either a slim Republican majority or an even split. Now, several of them having shifted the expectations, giving the GOP even more bad news to contend with.

"In July, Times Opinion asked six polling and politics experts to look into their crystal balls and foretell who would win control of the House and the Senate," the Times explained. "The panel had Democrats winning control of the House but falling short of a Senate majority — with a single exception. Roughly two months out from midterm Election Day, several of them have changed their minds about the Senate. When Times Opinion asked the same panel who would win if the elections were held today, four of them said Democrats would win both chambers. These are not scientific computations but educated guesses from people who think a lot about politics. Still, they offer a rosier picture of what the future holds for Democrats as they struggle to claw back control of Congress."

Perry Bacon, a staff writer for The New Republic, told the Times that there is still time for conservative voters to defy the current polling and drift back to the Republicans, but as it stands, things are looking grim for the party.

"The polls might be wrong. Conservative voters could still return to the G.O.P. — either on their own or inspired by the tens of millions Republicans are spending on ads," Bacon said. "But right now, Democrats are leading in the Senate races in Maine, North Carolina and Texas, and have real shots to flip Alaska and Ohio. They aren’t doing great in New Hampshire or Michigan, but Democrats still seem likely to hold those states. And President Trump’s terrible approval ratings, the generic ballot and other data suggest a 2018-ish blowout in the House."

Patrick Ruffini, a pollster with Echelon Insights, said that "the political environment is worse than it was in 2018" for Republicans and listed the key indicators of midterm success — all of which currently favor the opposition, even if they face other significant headwinds.

"The most reliable indicators of midterm performance point to Democratic strength: weak presidential approval, lower turnout in Republican primaries and, compared with 2018, the same or worse performance in special elections," Ruffini explained. "But political geography favors Republicans. To have an unambiguously good night, Democrats will have to win districts that voted for Trump by 10 points or more. That is an unusually tall order, even in the best of years. Whether the Senate flips is likely to rest on Texas, where Democrats have not won statewide in 32 years."

Charlotte Swasey, writer of the Medium Data newsletter, said that Democratic odds for the Senate have improved, and her sense of things also pointed to a more substantial majority in the House as well.

"The odds of a Democratic Senate majority are certainly looking better than they were earlier this year," Swasey explained. "The Democrats have come out of the Maine mess with a candidate who seems completely fine, and they don’t have any particularly big liabilities in the closest swing seats. (Abdul El-Sayed will be fine in Michigan, even if he runs a little behind a more conventional Democrat.) Despite the solid candidacy of James Talarico, I’ve been burned by promises of a blue Texas too many times to believe it’s possible, so I’m looking to Josh Turek in Iowa for that 52nd seat. In the House, I’m getting more confident that the Democratic majority will be large, rather than just adequate."

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