Republicans brace for the worst as new memo reveals catastrophic midterms odds

Senate Majority Leader John Thune pushes his glasses up as he speaks to reporters outside his office on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., October 14, 2025. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

The upcoming midterms are looking to be a disaster for the GOP, and according to internal polling memos viewed by Punchbowl News, the party's own information shows an extreme "level of concern" over an impending electoral catastrophe.

On Wednesday, Punchbowl published a report about a "new crop of House Republican-commissioned polls," which presented a "midterm warning sign" for the party amid all of its other insights. The poll, conducted in March with 400 respondents per seat, concerned the election odds for a wide variety of GOP seats, from highly contested battlegrounds to deep-red districts.

"Conservatives For America, a political organization linked to Republican Study Committee Chair August Pfluger (R-Texas), posted nine polls for GOP-held districts on its website, possibly to give to a super PAC without running afoul of campaign-finance limits on coordination," Punchbowl explained.

The results, according to Punchbowl's analysis, were not pretty, both for President Donald Trump and the party overall.

"President Donald Trump is underwater in districts that he won in 2024," the outlet explained. "Obviously, Trump isn’t on the ballot this November. But if his poll numbers sink low enough, Trump could pull vulnerable Republicans down. For example, Trump won Rep. Bryan Steil’s (R-Wis.) district by five points in 2024. But in this polling, Trump’s image is upside down by seven points. Trump’s job approval rating is upside down by five points."

Trump's approval is underwater in the Colorado district held by GOP Rep. Bryan Hurd by two points, a major swing from 2024, when he carried the district by 10 points. Punchbowl noted that he is also underwater in the districts held by Reps. Zach Nunn of Iowa, Juan Ciscomani of Arizona and Bill Huizenga of Michigan, all of which are being heavily targeted by Democrats as they look to cement a commanding House majority.

Punchbowl noted further that some GOP officials, like Huizenga, have positive approval ratings that outmatch Trump's in their districts, but there is considerable fear that they "will only be able to run so far ahead of a slumping Trump."

"Democrats are winning the generic ballot in some of these polls," the report continued. "Democrats are leading by two points in Steil’s district and up one point in Ciscomani’s district. Republicans are winning by just one point in Nunn’s district and Huizenga’s district. Another notable generic ballot: Republicans are only up five points in Rep. Brad Finstad’s (R-Minn.) district, one that Trump won by 12. Finstad, however, was up 10 points."

Ciscomani is among the most vulnerable Republicans surveyed by the poll. He trails his Democratic challenger, JoAnna Mendoza, by three points. Even worse, his job approval rating is six points in the negative.

These numbers are all the worse for Republicans, Punchbowl explained, because Democrats have yet to meaningfully advertise their candidates in these races, which will significantly raise their name ID. Typically, incumbents would be ahead at this point in the race, putting Republicans behind the 8-ball when they should still be safe.

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